Market Commentary

March corn up ¾ at $3.49
March beans unchanged at $9.68
The DOW is up
USD is stronger
Crude oil down $.12 at $63.61

Good morning,

Stocks are higher this morning after taking a bit of a tumble yesterday afternoon. Keep in mind stocks are still within striking distance of their most recent record highs, it was just the first time the media had seen weakness in long period of time so it garnered a lot of press. There's some talk the nervousness was fueled by the meltdown in the crypto currency space and the uncertainty surrounding Washington, where traders are anxiously waiting to see if lawmakers can pass a funding bill and prevent a government shutdown.

Corn bears continue to point towards more than ample U.S. and domestic ending stocks. In fact many sources are talking about an additional +1 to +2 million U.S. corn acres being planted in 2018 and ending stocks staying more than ample at or around 2.5 billion bushels. Technically, the corn market left a close as we continue to limit the downside under the $3.50 level. Again, still a choppy 6-7 cent range but we should see another bounce over the $3.50 level for now. That should set up a test of the recent high near the $3.53 area.

Soybean prices have rebounded the past couple of days, but the overall fundamental picture hasn't changed a lot. Bulls are pointing to USDA data not being as bearish as many had forecast and the most recent NOPA numbers being stronger than forecast in regard to U.S. crush demand. Bears continue to talk about the very real possibility of U.S. ending stocks eventually pushing closer to 500 million bushels. Technically, the bean market held its rally as we take aim on the highs near the $9.76 level. Expect some resistence there. Look for a break from there but last week’s reversal is leaving the $9.55 to $9.60 area as support.

Bloomberg: Brazil is considering removing a recently reinstated import tariff on American ethanol amid a surge in domestic prices and as the South American nation seeks to reopen the U.S. market for its beef. "This protection doesn’t make sense anymore," Blairo Maggi, Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry, told reporters Tuesday in Brasilia. Record-high gasoline prices spurred Brazil’s consumers to demand more ethanol.

The USDA has finalized a regulation that will allow all Mexican states to export pork to the United States, a move supported by the National Pork Producers Council. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is implementing a science-based risk assessment that determined Mexico is free of Classical Swine Fever (CSF), highly contagious viral disease in pigs. It was eradicated from the United States in the late 1970s. APHIS in 2016 concluded that the risk of CSF from pork imports from Mexico is negligible. (Source: Ohio AgNet)

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