Morning Comments

Mar corn -1 ¾ at 4.9875

Mar beans -3 ½ at 13.0825

The DOW is Down


Crude oil -.09 at 52.18


Good morning,


Overnight grain markets were two-sided with a weaker tone as we try to stabilize the breaks. Fundamentally, not much has changed for row crops. Demand is strong with fresh export interest around on the break, and domestic stocks are still tightening. No 8 am sales announced today. Conditions have improved in the Southern Hemisphere to help stabilize production ideas and that helped the markets relax with these overdue corrections. The nearby corn and soybean spreads were firm overnight although the old to new crop spreads were generally softer, heading into the break the old to new crop spreads turned higher as well which could be a signal that flat price may try to grip here too? Tough to read too much into overnight price and spread action when the fund flows tend to be more pronounced during the day trade. The new crop bean/corn ratio sits at 2.59%.

In the product trade, meal and oil are both mixed without any real feature worth noting early on. Board crush margins bounced back off their lows last week with nearby crush showing 82 cents/bushel. Malaysian palm oil closed -1.22% to 3,242 ringgit as January export data continues to reflect a sharp slowdown in demand following the new export tax went into effect at the start of the year. Jan 1-25 palm oil exports are seen as down -34% to -36% from Dec 1-25.


China Blames Unlicensed Vaccines for New AFS Strains: A new form of African swine fever identified in Chinese pig farms is most likely caused by illicit vaccines, industry insiders say, a fresh blow to the world’s largest pork producer, still recovering from a devastating epidemic of the virus. Two new strains of African swine fever have infected more than 1,000 sows on several farms owned by New Hope Liuhe, China’s fourth-largest producer, as well as pigs being fattened for the firm by contract farmers, said Yan Zhichun, the company’s chief science officer. Though the strains, which are missing one or two key genes present in the wild African swine fever virus, don’t kill pigs like the disease that ravaged China’s farms in 2018 and 2019, they cause a chronic condition that reduces the number of healthy piglets born, Yan told Reuters. At New Hope, and many large producers, infected pigs are culled to prevent the spread, making the disease effectively fatal. “I don’t know where they come from, but we find some mild field infections caused by some sort of gene-deleted viruses,” Yan said.


Darren, David, and Elizabeth


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