Morning Commentary

March corn up 2 ¾ at $3.755

March beans up 4 ½ at $9.095

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $1.16 at $53.57

Good morning,

Stock are higher this morning as traders digest headlines that congressional negotiators in Washington reached an “agreement in principle” last night to fund border security and prevent another partial government shutdown.

Corn prices are slightly higher this morning, but bulls have been taking small steps backwards as of late, with weather somewhat improving in South America and trade negotiations with China still highly uncertain. Let’s also not forget, demand growth here in the U.S. is being more heavily questioned by the bears. Data circulating inside the trade shows ethanol prices have now fallen to their lowest level in the past 13-years. Technically, the market remains trapped in a range. the old-crop MAR19 contract has essentially traded between $3.50 and $4.00 since mid-June of last year. The last time this contract closed above $4.00 was back on June 13th. Even more frustrating, the last time we closed above $3.90 was back in mid-October. On the downside, we haven’t closed sub-$3.70 since late-November.

Soybean  prices are slightly higher this morning on optimism surrounding Chinese trade talks and CONAB lowering their Brazilian crop estimate from 118.80 MMTs down to 115.34 MMTs. Unfortunately, prices have backpedaled a bit as of late on uncertainty surrounding ongoing trade negotiations with China. Prices have pulled back about -25 cents from the highs set back at the beginning of February. Technically, we can argue the MAR19 contract remains range-bound between $8.50 and $9.50 per bushel. The last time this contract closed above $9.50 was back on June 14th of last year. We’ve traded back to the $9.41 area only twice since last summer.

 

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