Morning Comments

May corn 0 at 5.7725

May beans -8 at 13.95

The DOW is Down

USD is Down

Crude oil +1.23 at 60.55

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets traded weaker with the soy complex and wheat leading to the downside while corn is struggling to stay in positive territory heading into the biscuit break. Old and new crop bean futures have slipped to a two-week low under $14 again although the bull spreads are slightly firmer. The Goldman Roll is on day 3 of 5. Interior processor bean bids remain steady/firm, NOPA March crush data will be released on Thursday where a return to record or near record monthly crush is anticipated following February data that dropped off with weather likely being a factor.

In the product trade, meal and oil are both weaker but meal is gaining in the oil share spread. Canola is trading mixed but Malaysian palm oil closed -3% and is dragging on soybean oil early on.

News from over the weekend is limited and weather is mostly benign. Crop progress this afternoon will update corn planting and corn/wheat conditions, beans will be counted starting next week. US row crop planting pace will accelerate as ground temps begin to warm up. The largest crop concern will continue to be over Brazil’s safrinha corn production where dryness is a concern although it is still early and forecasts hint at better moisture opportunities this coming weekend and through the end of the month.

 

Overnight, the corn market got off to a hot start, nearly trading ten cents higher at one point, before angling back toward unchanged over the balance of the night. May Corn would finish effectively unchanged by the morning pause, closing the initial gap higher; other months posted a penny higher close. There is not much news around early; outside markets are mixed, leaning supportive (crude up, dollar down a little). We will get the second national crop progress report tonight. There was scattered reports of light fieldwork last week, though we suspect insurance restrictions and a cool/wet bias likely limited significant corn planting in all but the very southern reaches of U.S. growing areas. 6-10 & 8-14 day maps are cool and dry; mixed, but should allow for expanded progress soon. There are rains in the forecast for Brazil this weekend and into early next week, which may explain some of the overnight

volatility? Overall, aside from planting, the main story at present is likely the strength in many cash markets. Interesting to note that despite closing higher for nine consecutive weeks, cash ethanol profitability has actually narrowed in recent weeks, due to falling DDG (relative to corn) and rising corn basis. Despite plenty of rumors to the contrary, there has still been no 8 AM corn sales announcements. Today is Day 3 of the Goldman Roll, so look for more wild spread action and volume.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

Morning Comments

May corn +3 ¾ AT 5.835

May beans + ¼ AT 14.155

The DOW is UP

USD is UP

Crude oil -.23 AT 59.37

 

Good morning,

Overnight grain markets traded higher building on yesterday’s momentum ahead of the USDA crop report at 11 am cst. The corn market is challenging contract highs in the old crop and trading into new highs in the Dec new crop near $5. Wheat is extending its recovery trade off recent lows. Meanwhile, the soy complex continues its temporary slumber with a choppy, sideways trade. The bean spreads are mixed with the nearby K-N trading a tick better while N-X is a few ticks lower. Soybean processor bids continue to trend higher while the futures remain stuck for now.

 

In the product trade, back and forth we go as the oil share turns lower with meal gaining on oil early on. Canola is touch lower after trading into a new contract higher yesterday. Malaysian palm oil closed -.63% lower following yesterday’s reversal to the downside.

USDA crop report comes out at 11 am cst today. This report focuses on the old crop balance sheet where demand projections can be adjusted. Corn stocks are expected to be lowered by an avg. guess of 106 mb with larger exports anticipated. Wheat stocks are expected to rise nominally by 9 mb on the avg. guess. Beans are less clear if the USDA will print anything lower than their current 120 mb carryout at this timing. If the USDA decides to increase their soybean exports from the current 2.250 billion bushels, they can offset that demand with an increase in their import number that sits at 35 million bushels as of now. The record for US soybean imports was in 13/14 when we imported 71.7 million bushels, Linn is currently estimating imports of 60 million bushels. The new crop balance sheet reveal comes in the May crop report.

 

Overnight, the corn market kept the rally party rolling, overcoming a slightly weaker start up-front to finish three cents higher across the curve by the morning pause. It is report day, and everyone is expecting the USDA to deliver something friendly. The question is, will it be enough to satisfy a market

pressing into new highs? The April WASDE is generally not a market-mover; the USDA will not offer their thoughts on new crop until next month. It is a pure balance sheet report, and continued strong implied disappearance in last week’s Quarterly Stocks data has the bull on point for a potential upward revision in U.S. demand expectations. We think they will raise exports ~100 million bushels, but will likely pass on any further adjustments for now. The average analyst guess for domestic ending stocks is 1.4 billion vs. 1.5 billion in March. It is also possible the USDA may take a hard look at the world S&D. Most analysts are below the USDA’s South American production forecasts; for instance, CONAB yesterday affirmed a ~105 mmt total Brazil corn crop estimate, which compares to the USDA’s 109 mmt. Some also think they are a little high on Argentina at 47.5 mmt, but a recent tilt towards better weather there may stay their hand another month? China was also out yesterday telling everyone what they already knew; they raised their 20/21 import “forecast” to 22 mmt, from 10 mmt prior (USDA already at 24 mmt?). So, a dip in world carryout is also expected (analyst average at 285 mmt vs. 287.7 in Mar).

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

Morning Comments

May corn +6  ¾ at 5.6725

May beans -1 at 14.0775

The DOW is Down

USD is Down

Crude oil -.44 at 59.33

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets mostly traded higher led by wheat where spring and hrw are reacting to concerns for dryness in the Canadian Prairies and US N Plains, in addition to growing feed demand as values have encouraged cattle feeders to look at hrw as an alternative to high priced corn in some areas. The corn and bean bull spreads are firm from old to new crop with firming basis driving the spreads and in the case of corn, flat price is pushing into the upper end of its trading range. Bean slipped from a couple pennies higher in the old crop to 1 lower headed into the break. The Goldman Roll starts today and could weigh on the front month May contracts as the index funds roll longs out to the July for the next 5 sessions.

 

Overnight, the corn market was quietly firm, though gains accelerated into the final hour of trade, ultimately finishing six cents higher up-front and a few cents better in the new crop as well. The two headlines of the morning thus far were rather unremarkable? Export sales were in-line; net new sales for 20/21 were 757,000 metric tons (mt), along with an extra 50,000 mt for new crop 21/22. Japan and South Korea were the main buyers of record; China picked-up 99,000 metric tons, though most of that was a 70k switch from ‘unknown’ sales. China also exercised 56,100 metric tons of optional origin sales to non-U.S. origin? Corn Sold + Shipped for 20/21 is now 66.5 million metric tons (mmt), which is now notably above the USDA’s sales forecast (66.0). True, nearly one-half of the sales are yet unshipped, but we think the USDA will likely start raising their projection soon. The other major headline was the CONAB (Brazil gov’t) crop report, which up-ticked first season corn production 1 mmt; the total corn crop is now seen 105 mmt, which is close to current USDA thinking. This is obviously weather pending, with most of the safrinha crop (which is over two-thirds of the total) freshly-planted. Expect spreads to be a major feature of trade today; the Goldman Roll kicks-off today and will carry-on for one full week. We also have a monthly USDA report tomorrow.

 

Farmers Averaging $20/Acre or Less in Nascent U.S. Carbon Market: A small fraction of U.S. farmers who have pursued contracts for capturing carbon in the soil – an incentive for climate mitigation – say the going rate is $20 an acre or less, said Purdue University. Payment rates of $15 or $20 are commonly mentioned at present for each ton of carbon dioxide that is sequestered or preserved through reduced emissions. At those prices, growers could spend more on cover crops than they would see in a carbon payment. The seed, equipment, and labor for cover crops ranges from $15 to $75 an acre, says the Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Outreach initiative. On the other hand, Midwestern farmers spent hundreds of dollars an acre to grow corn and soybeans in recent years with relatively small returns, if any, on rented land.

 

French Sugar Beets Face Freeze Losses: Exceptionally cold weather this week may have severely damaged up to 10% of France’s sugar beet area, potentially forcing farmers to replant affected fields, growers’ group CGB said. The group estimated that between roughly 25,000 and 100,000 acres of recently sown sugar beet had suffered massive losses that would require replanting, Timothe Masson, an analyst at the CGB, told Reuters on Wednesday. CGB previously estimated this year’s sugar beet area at around 988,000 acres, already about -6% less than in 2020. The arrival of intense cold just as sugar beet was emerging from the soil is thought to have caused extensive damage in a swathe of cropland south of Paris, Masson said. Tereos, France’s biggest sugar maker, said on Twitter it was assessing damage with its cooperative growers and was in contact with seed suppliers after an “unprecedented phenomenon”.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

Morning Comments

May corn +3 ¼ AT 5.575

May beans +4 ¼ AT 14.23

The DOW is Down

USD is UP

Crude oil .14 at 59.47

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets traded modestly higher in another quiet, limited range trade. The nearby soybean bull spread is soft today ahead of the Goldman Roll that starts tomorrow where the index funds will be rolling longs from May to July and often creates some front running of the spread, old crop to new crop spread is gaining. Domestic bean basis remains firm at historically elevated levels.

The US GFS weather forecast features cooler temps on the way, and it stays wet across the South while the Midwest will turn drier after the current rains move out later this week. This pattern could slow bean planting progress in the delta in a year where that early supply availability is much more important than normal. USDA will begin updating bean planting progress one week from this coming Monday.

In the product trade, meal is higher and oil steady with the oil share spread looking to relax after three days of gains. Gains in competing veg oils like canola (trading +1.5%) and palm oil (closed +1.1%) may make it difficult to hold down soybean oil today.

USDA crop report comes out on Friday – range and avg. of trade estimates shown below. This report focuses on the old crop balance sheet where demand projections can be adjusted. Corn stocks are expected to be lowered by an avg. guess of 106 mb with larger exports anticipated. Wheat stocks are expected to rise nominally by 9 mb on the avg. guess. Beans are less clear if the USDA will print anything lower than their current 120 mb carryout at this timing. If the USDA decides to increase their soybean exports from the current 2.250 billion bushels, they can offset that demand with an increase in their import number that sits at 35 million bushels as of now. The record for US soybean imports was in 13/14 when we imported 71.7 million bushels, Linn is currently estimating imports of 60 million bushels. The new crop balance sheet reveal comes in the May crop report.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

 

Morning Comments

May corn -1 ¼ AT 5.5825

May beans +12 ¼ AT 14.1425

The DOW is UP

USD is DOWN

Crude oil -.80 AT 60.65

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets featured strength in new crop corn and beans where a late attempt to incentivize additional acres is underway following last week’s prospective plantings report. New crop beans are also attracting new longs and narrowing their discount to old crop values as it becomes apparent that even with favorable growing conditions, carryout projections for next year will look similar to this year assuming demand doesn’t plummet. Old crop beans are lagging to new crop for the moment, but flat price is stabilizing back above $14 with domestic basis continuing to signal very tight supplies.

Reuters published an article quoting a source that sow stocks in northern China dropped between 25% and 30% in northern China from February to March due to the latest surge in African swine fever.

NASS will publish crop progress this afternoon including corn planting progress, bean plantings will be updated starting in two weeks.

US weather outlook shows rains disrupting field work at times this week with the heavier totals seen in the western half of the corn belt and delta. Above normal temps are seen for most of the corn belt with drier conditions too – except where you have above normal precip for the N Plains in the 6-10 day and in the S Plains in the 8-14 day.

We have another USDA crop report this Friday that will put the focus back on old crop ending stocks as they adjust demand projections. The new crop balance sheet reveal comes in the May crop report.

 

Overnight, the corn market started firm; old crop months quickly lost their initial bids, ultimately finishing a penny lower by the morning pause, while the new crop months finished 5-6 cents higher. The bear spread bias – ostensibly to buy a few more acres after the USDA’s intentions miss – is a continuation from Thursday. Overall, news flow to start the week is a mish-mash of cross-currents. On the weather front, a mostly favorable environment for northern hemisphere planting is seen, while there remains a low-level of concern over late safrinha planting (along with a dryer trend in some of those growing areas). Outside markets lean a little negative with Crude Oil down $1, but ethanol margins have not cared too much about recent choppiness, as they remain near the highest levels attainable since late last autumn. Domestic corn basis is firm, despite notions of more feed wheat inclusion here and abroad? So again, nothing universally bullish or bearish to start the week, which should keep the markets relatively choppy with plenty of volatility. There will be another USDA report Friday (just a monthly WASDE); the first national crop progress report is due after the close today, though it is expected to be highly wheat focused.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

 

Morning Comments

May corn -3 at 5.355

May beans -8 ½ at 14.05

The DOW is UP

USD is UP

Crude oil -.04 at 65.98

 

Good morning,

Overnight grain markets featured selling in corn and the soy complex while wheat traded slightly higher. It has been a down week across the grains with the exception of soybean oil but even bean oil is trading lower early on today. Canola is trading -5.5 lower while Malaysian palm oil closed +1.6% into a new high. The dollar is trading 42 pts higher after a three day correction lower. Daylight savings begins this weekend and the first day of spring is next weekend.

Weather leans bearish at the moment with a substantial soaking over the coming days to aid the US winter wheat crop as it greens up and for much of the corn belt just ahead of the row crop planting season. Argentina’s forecast offers promise of relief for crops struggling under another stretch hot/dry conditions. Brazil soybean harvest and second corn crop planting continues to advance, even if well behind normal timings. Recent crop projections have seen Argentina’s crop getting smaller and Brazil’s bigger. The forecasted rains have the potential to stabilize Argentina’s slipping crops and Brazil’s soybean production is becoming more defined with a record crop that can be argued 1-3 mmt on either side of 133 mmt while it will be a wait and see on the late safrinha corn crop potential.

The cash markets are very quiet. Soybean barge basis has been soft this week while interior basis remains steady/firm at historically elevated levels. The futures can shake around at a time with limited news to influence market sentiment, but the soybean market only is marking time for now with an eye on the crop reports at month’s end and a tight supply story that is not going away any time soon.

March futures go off the board at noon. Spec position limits are set to double on Monday likely bringing increased market volatility as the grains will have to accommodate the larger fund positions.

 

Overnight, the corn market maintained a modestly defensive posture, finishing 3-4 cents lower by the morning pause. Heading into “Big Friday”, May Corn is nursing modest losses, while the new crop Dec is closer to unchanged. March futures will expire at noon today with no deliveries yet recorded. The transition to the May contract Monday could present some interesting technical possibilities on the weekly chart? Today is a relatively quiet news day, but no doubt Sunday night will be hopping as the market eyes potential weather outcomes in Argentina. Next week is expected to be a wetter one for the country, and this rain is seen as critical to stabilize conditions after a hot and dry month. Only 17% of the corn crop is now seen Good-Excellent while 28% is Poor-Very Poor, down from 25% G-E and 16% P-VP the prior week. Safrinha planting remains an issue in Brazil, too, as we veer outside the optimal window (think planting U.S. corn in June). Another issue of note is an apparent upswing in African Swine Fever chatter in China, which has helped to significantly break Dalian/China meal markets (corn is down, but not nearly as much). The side benefit has been stronger hog prices here in the U.S. Both hog and ethanol producers have seen good weeks overall, marked by improving margins and better demand.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

 

 

Morning Comments

May corn -5 at 5.42

May beans -3 ½ at 14.3025

The DOW is UP

USD is Down

Crude oil 0 at 65.05

 

Good morning,

Overnight grain markets were mixed with corn and beans trading lower headed into the break, the bull spreads in corn are soft while the bean spreads are firm. Chicago wheat is a touch higher while KC is slightly lower. Soybean oil continues to gain with new contract highs while meal is breaking down its recent range on the other side of the product trade and oil share spreading. The rally in soybean oil and global veg oil strength continues as the feature trade of the moment due to tightening global supplies and surging demand for both food and biofuel use.

The USDA March WASDE comes out at 11:00 cst, this is not typically a major report and trade expectations are for fairly modest changes although there is always a delta for a USDA curveball. Week 2 options offer the least cost option premium to manage the crop report risk, those options expire this Friday. US carryouts for corn are estimated on average to tighten from 1.502 bb to 1.471, beans from 120 mb to 117 and wheat to increase from 836 mb to 839 mb. World carryouts are estimated on average to tighten from 286.5 mmt to 284.2 mmt in corn, from 83.3 mmt to 82.6 mmt in beans and to increase from 304.2 mmt to 304.4 mmt in wheat. Argentina’s crops are estimated to fall by 500 tmt to 47.0 mmt in corn, and by 600 tmt to 47.4 mmt in beans. Brazil’s crops are estimated to fall by 700 tmt to 108.3 mmt in corn and to increase by 90 tmt to 133.09 mmt in beans.

Argentina’s weather forecast includes needed relief from hot/mostly dry conditions starting next week while Brazil continues to struggle with too much moisture in parts of the central to northern growing regions that is impacting soybean quality and jeopardizing safrinha corn plantings and early germination.

Cordonnier left his Brazil soy and corn production estimates unchanged at 132 mmt and 105 mmt respectively, noting poor soybean quality in the wet areas and risk to safrinha plantings in a neutral to lower bias going forward. He also left his Argentine soy and corn production estimates unchanged at 46.0 mmt and 45.5 mmt with a neutral to lower bias on both.

 

Overnight, the corn market had a softer vibe, finishing 3-5 cents lower by the morning pause. The primary focus today will be the USDA’s March WASDE report, due for release late morning. Usually, the March S&D is a subdued affair, and we have no reason to suspect any major changes are afoot. Some demand tweaking and minor changes in world production are possible. There is also always the low probability wild-card of a China S&D revision, given continued uncertainty over that country’s corn balance sheet? In general, traders are expecting both U.S. and world corn carryout to tighten slightly. The analyst consensus pegs U.S. carryout at 1.47 billion (vs. 1.50 in Feb) and world carryout at 284.2 (vs. 286.5 in Feb). It may still be too early for the USDA to make wholesale changes to their South American crop estimates, which generally skew toward the high-end of current private forecasts. Looking forward, the April WASDE will likely incorporate any changes implied by the March 31 Quarterly Stocks data, while the May WASDE will offer the first official full balance sheet for new crop 21/22. Barring a major curveball in the March report, we suspect markets will go back to trading South American weather shortly after release. There has been slowly rising optimism over a boost in Argentina’s precip later this week and next, though Brazil fieldwork remains a slog.

 

Brazil Harvest Drags While Moisture Hits Bean Quality: Brazilian farmers reaped less soybeans than expected from fields last week as rains continued to disrupt the work of the harvesters in the world’s largest producer of the oilseeds, agribusiness consultancy said AgRural on Monday. Bean quality is also being affected by damp conditions, the consultancy said. Brazilian farmers had harvested an estimated 35% of the planted soybean area through last Thursday, the slowest pace in a decade amid March rains. At the same time a year ago, 49% of the area had been reaped in Brazil. With high humidity for the past few weeks in regions of Mato Grosso (state) and in the north and northeast of the country, quality problems have been increasing, AgRural said. In addition, the large amount of soy leaving fields with high humidity has caused lines of trucks at warehouses because the standardization of the batches has been consuming more time due to excess damp. Delays to reap soy have affected the pace of second corn crop planting in Brazil, as farmers have sown only 54% of the estimated area for the cereal compared with 80% in 2020.

 

Study Finds No Negative Effects From E30: The use of E30 in state of Nebraska non flexible-fuel vehicles for one year found no observable negative effects on vehicle performance or costs per mile, the results of a study released by the state on Monday show. Just as markets for E15 continue to grow across the country, the study also found because E30 is about 2.5% less expensive than E15, the wide use of E30 would make it a more economically viable fuel. What’s more, the study found non-FFVs were able to adjust the air-to-fuel ratio to adapt to E30’s higher oxygen content. The results of the study were released during a Monday press conference by Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts. The year-long demonstration involved 50 non-FFVs from the state of Nebraska to determine adaptability, economic feasibility and environmental effect of using E30. The analysis said if the state’s non-FFV vehicle fleet changes from using E15 to E30, ethanol consumption would increase by 66,000 gallons per year with a reduction of 529 tons of carbon dioxide emissions.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

 

Morning Comments

May corn +4 at 5.495

May beans +12 ¾ at 14.4275

The DOW is UP

USD is UP

Crude oil -.34 at 65.75

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets featured gap higher openings in corn, soybeans and bean oil but it has been somewhat of a struggle to sustain that early momentum through the evening. Heading into the break, the markets are trading in positive territory with new crop corn, old and new beans, soybean oil, canola and palm oil each into new contract highs. The gaps are intact for beans and oil although the markets are all trading near their session lows. The dollar index is trading up 26 pts to a 3.5 month high which is dragging on commodities while southern hemisphere weather sides with the bull.

Agrural pegs Brazil soy havest at 35% for the week ending March 4, up 10% on the week and the slowest pace in 10 years. Last year’s harvest pace was 49% on this date. Only 54% of the safrinha corn has been planted across the county’s center-south, up 15% on the week but trailing the 80% pace this time last year.

 

Overnight, the corn market received its weekly Sunday night gap higher, and subsequent dawn ‘reversion to the mean’, ultimately finishing 3-4 cents higher in old crop and 2 cents higher in new. Overall, old crop futures put in a ten cent nightly range, never trading lower. Continued sub-optimal weather in South America, combined with gains in related/adjacent markets (particularly veg oil) helped rally the markets early, while a rising Dollar and wetter forecasts in parts of Argentina likely tamped prices back down again. We also have a USDA report due tomorrow morning, which will attract some market positioning today. Usually, the March WASDE is a subdued affair, and we have no reason to suspect any major changes. In this day and age, though, there is always the wild-card of a China S&D revision, given continued arguments over just how much corn they have left in stock? Of greater significance, of course, will be the Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Intentions data due at the end of this month. Warmer weather in the U.S. South and Plains will likely also get farmers excited about spring planting? Still no deliveries against the March futures contract, which expires Friday at noon.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

Morning Comments

May corn +6 ¾ AT 5.3925

May beans +6 AT 14.165

The DOW is UP

USD is UP

Crude oil +1.68 AT 65.51

 

Good morning,

Overnight grain markets traded higher across the soy complex and corn with wheat trading slightly lower. A drop in Argentina crop ratings is lending support but other fresh news is limited around the grains today. While soybeans continue to pay rent in ‘chop city’ for the moment, meal has been hanging out in the ‘bend but don’t break’ part of town as soybean oil is living large in the ‘new contract high’ end of town.

The most recent data this week from the USDA census crush and the weekly export sales reports underscore the fact that soybean demand has not been curtailed to this point. This is a supply problem that will need to be solved with higher soybean prices that encourage export cancellations and/or slow processing demand. The bean rally may be taking a breather from making new highs, but don’t be lulled into complacency because our supply issues have not been resolved.

The outside markets feature the dollar extending its breakout rally trading 25 pts higher which is not bothering the crude oil market trading into new highs of its own over $65/barrel.

Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange rated the Argentine soybean crop as 10% G/E down from 15% a week ago while the corn rating was 25% G/E down from 30% a week ago, 70% of the crop is in normal condition and 20% of the crop is in fair or bad condition, up from 15% last week. They noted they could cut its harvest forecast for Argentina’s 2020/21 soybeans, currently at 46 million tonnes, if there were no rains in key producing areas in the coming weeks. They also noted if rains aren’t seen in eastern corn growing areas they would also likely pull back their forecast for that crop.

 

Overnight, the corn market was able to rebound after a squishy Thursday close, ultimately finishing 6-7 cents higher in old crop and 3-4 higher in new by the morning pause. Heading into ‘Big Friday’, the corn market is effectively unchanged for the week, when counting overnight gains. In keeping with the recent choppy theme, a close right here would be in the middle of a 22 cent weekly price range. Outside markets are in a good mood to start and could very well be helping give corn an early boost; Crude Oil is into new highs and stocks bounced back, but the U.S. Dollar is firm. Note that yesterday’s Crude Oil rally left Ethanol behind; in fact, the crush gave back most of its recent gains and then some Thurs. On the weather front, we will start to have to watch Europe, as we are nearing the start of spring grain planting over there (mostly barley to start). South American weather is not much changed; we have observed a little more rain around Argentina than we expected this week, but note it is not widespread. Southern Argentina looks to be favored over the next week or two, while the central part of the country is disfavored for rain and will likely see some stress? BAGE left crop estimates unchanged this week, but says Argentina corn and beans may be due for a downgrade if dryness continues? Elsewhere, still no deliveries against March futures, and we have the next monthly WASDE update this coming Tuesday.

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

 

Morning Comments

Good Morning   

 

Current Markets as of         8:10     Friday, February 12, 2021

 

Month                            High                   Low                    Change                         Last

Mar 21 Corn              $5.46 ¼           $5.40 ¼                $ + 1 ¼                        $5.42 ¼                                                                

Dec 21 Corn               $4.54 ¾          $4.50 ¾                 $ – 1 ¼                         $4.51 ¼                                                                           

Mar 21 Beans           $13.77 ¼         $13.63 ½               $ + 2 ½                        $13.70                             

Nov 21 Beans             $11.80 ¾       $11.71 ¼                $ + 1 ¼                         $11.75 ½       

  

Oil    $58      Lower      Gold   $1,815   Lower     Dow $31,300   Lower      Wheat $6.33 Mixed 

The Des Moines ethanol low rack price is $1.6483. This is $0.1879 lower than the unleaded gas low price of $1.8362 

Mar Corn Support is $5.25 and resistance is $5.74.  Mar Bean Support is $13.37 and resistance is $14.36. Funds bought 100 Million (20,000) contracts of corn and bought 60 Million (12,000) contracts of beans Thursday. Just over 122,000 contracts traded last night. 

Grains and oilseeds are higher as we head towards a three-day break from the marketplace. Corn and soybean futures are back above the 20-day moving average and testing yesterday’s highs at time of writing. Meanwhile, equities and energies are a touch on the defensive while the dollar is firming. The CME will be closed Monday in observance of Presidents’ Day 

 

The soybean board crush firmed a bit to 79 cents spot and July at 68 cents. New crop board crush is more acceptable at roughly $1.00 per bushel.  Oil share continues to lead with 35% of the crush value.  Domestic meal cover appears to be adequate through March but increasingly less so April-forward. 

Argentine corn harvest getting underway and export values running under US for March-June slots. (June slot has Arg corn 43 cents/bu cheaper). Buenos Grain Exchange still keeping their estimate of the corn crop at 46.0 mmt while the Rosario Grain exchange bumped their number to 48 mmt. Look for choppy trade today 

Weather:  Argentina was mostly dry over the past 24 hours, with action picking up center/ north in the next five days, back dry again for the 6-10 day time frame as moisture supplies decline. Brazilian rains were solid center/east in particular yesterday, with good precipitation in all but western crop areas expected in the next five days, then rains moving out to the north for the 6-10 day period and leaving the bulk of corn and soybean areas drier during that span 

OPENING CALLS:

 

Corn:  Calls are 1-3 better following the overnight trade

Beans:  Calls are 3-5 higher following the overnights

 

Have a Great Weekend!   Darren, David and Elizabeth

Gold-Eagle Cooperative Providing Quality Services and Products Innovatively, Profitably, and Professionally. 

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