Morning Comments

Good Morning   

 

Current Markets as of         8:00     Monday, July 12, 2021

 

Month                              High                    Low                     Change                           Last

Sep 21 Corn               $5.36 ¾                 $5.26 ¾               $ + 2 ¼                        $5.31 ¾                                                               

Dec 21 Corn               $5.24 ½                $5.14 ¼                $ + 2 ½                        $5.19 ½                                                                            

Aug 21 Beans            $13.91 ½               $13.78 ½             $ + 4 ¾                        $13.84                            

Nov 21 Beans             $13.41 ¾             $13.28 ½              $ + 2 ¾                        $13.32       

  

Oil    $73.70      Lower      Gold   $1,800   Lower     Dow $34,650   Lower      Wheat $6.14 Lower 

The Des Moines ethanol low rack price is $2.1234. This is $0.2924 lower than the unleaded gas low price of $2.4158 

Nationally crop ratings are expected to improve 1-2% this afternoon with improvements in IA and other states offsetting the declines in the Dakotas/MN 

Canola prices are limit up again as the drought and forecast of hot temps returning next week continue to take its toll on the crop there 

Friday’s CFTC report showed the funds continue to trim their longs in corn…long 219k contracts as of Tuesday’s close, down 26k contracts from the previous week. Some estimate funds long less than 195k contracts as of today as US weather and technicals remain negative short term. 

Sep Corn Support is $5.30 and resistance is $5.60.  Aug Bean Support is $13.34 and resistance is $14.00. Funds sold 30 Million (6,000) contracts of corn and bought 30 Million (6,000) contracts of beans Friday. Just under 100,000 contracts traded last night. 

China announced it would build 10.85 mmt of new grain storage (currently estimated to have 650 mmt) in the coming year. 

Weather:  Weekend rains were heavy from eastern NE and IA through the ECB; SD and

MN will see a rain chance mid-week with near-term chances otherwise confined to the eastern/northeastern belt. 6-10 day precip maps are split dry north/wet south, with the 11-15 day dry overall. Temps remain normal/above 

 

OPENING CALLS: 

Corn:  higher trade with the return of heat this week 

Beans:  higher trade on weather outlook 

Have a Great Monday!   Darren, David and Elizabeth

Gold-Eagle Cooperative Providing Quality Services and Products Innovatively, Profitably, and Professionally. 

Morning Comments

Sept corn -6 ¼ at 5.365

Aug beans -10 ½ at 13.5625

The DOW is Down

USD is Down

Crude oil -.31 at 71.88

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets traded mixed but have turned weaker into the daylight hours. Rains this week are bringing near term relief to some key crop areas in the west and that continues to weigh on sentiment. Weakness in the outside markets over Japan’s covid state of emergency ahead of the Olympics is spilling over to the grains as well. The soybean bull spreads are holding firm from the old crop to the November contract but weaker out into the 2022 contracts. There were 12 soybean deliveries stopped by LDC overnight, the July futures will expire on 7/14 with only 868 in open interest to start the day. Soybean cash remains soft with a general trend of weakening domestic basis that has been ongoing for 2 months although bids remain elevated above historic norms.

In the product trade, meal and oil are both weaker headed into the break with the oil share spread holding steady. Board crush margins are showing 92 cents for August but in the $1.20-$1.30 range for Sept.-Jan.

World Weather reports ‘a ridge of high pressure is being advertised in the U.S. Plains during the second week of the two week outlook today that the market will likely be focused upon. However, before that feature kicks in to reduce rainfall and induce greater heat in the Plains, Canada’s Prairies and the western fringes of the Corn Belt there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms during this first week of the outlook benefiting crops in many areas. Crop conditions in some of the eastern Midwest Corn and Soybean Production areas near and east of the Mississippi from Missouri to Ohio and Michigan look very good.’

 

Overnight, the corn market was mixed; firm start, soft finish, ultimately finishing about six cents lower by the morning pause. Outside markets are a feature early on ‘reflation’ trade liquidation; the Dow is 500 points lower, the Dollar slightly higher, and bond yields lower. We think such fund activity has exacerbated weather selling in the CBOT complex earlier this week, and no doubt is weighing some early? Weather remains a bear weight around the markets; the 7 day maps still favor N Illinois, most of Indiana, and Iowa (excluding the far western rump). Note this still leaves the droughty Western Belt

with rather spotty coverage, but the current attitude of the market seems to be ‘some is better than none’. CONAB also published their Brazil crop data today; they see Brazil’s full year corn crop at 93.385 million metric tons, which compares to 96.392 mmt prior, but is still well-above most private analysts in

the 85-90 mmt forecast range. Will be interesting to see where the USDA lands in Monday’s WASDE? We do have the weekly EIA later this morning; ethanol production should downtick 1%, perhaps a little more, eyeing hot weather in some places and declining profitability in others. Stocks are likely to keep

building, likely to the tune of about 1% wk/wk. Ethanol futures have generally held-up better than corn this week, implying margins shifted from “breakeven/worse” over the weekend to “breakeven/better” now. Seasonal DDG weakness remains a big obstacle to profitability.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

 

Morning Comments

July corn +8 ½ at 6.9925

July beans +11 ¼ at 15.3425

The DOW is UP

USD is Mixed

Crude oil +.30 at 70.26

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets were firmer in corn and the soy complex while wheat traded lower. It is going to be a busy day for the grain trade with plenty of fresh fundamental data for the markets to digest including CONAB’s Brazilian forecast, weekly export sales and the USDA monthly crop report at 11 am cst and of course, the latest weather forecast changes.

The soybean bull spreads are weaker despite the higher flat price on the board. Domestic basis remains soft and the index fund roll continues to weigh on the front end of the curve while weather uncertainty supports the new crop.

Brazil’s CONAB reduced its forecast for total corn production by 10 mmt to 96.38 mmt (USDA 102.0 mmt last) while it raised its soybean production est. by 460 tmt to 135.86 mmt (USDA 136.0 mmt last). Corn exports were lowered from 35.0 mmt to 29.5 mmt for 20/21 while soybean exports were raised from 85.6 mmt to 86.65 mmt.

Weekly export sales were not expected to be strong, and the report matched that expectation. China bought a cargo of old crop corn along with 18.8 trb of cotton, 2.3 tmt of beef and 8.1 tmt of pork. Most of the old crop soybean business was moved out of previously announced unknown sales leaving just 16 tmt of new sales. New crop soybean sales totaled 105 tmt going to Hong Kong, Taiwan and unknown. The meal and oil sales were unremarkable and to the usual suspects.

Old crop soybean sales on the books stand at 3.808 mmt with China earmarked for 692 tmt and unknown for 1.2 mmt. Accumulated exports have reached 57.745 mmt. Combined sales plus shipment total 61.553 mmt or 2.261 billion bushels representing 99.1% of the USDA projected 2.280 billion bushel program with 12 weeks remaining in the marketing year. New crop commitments have grown to 7.556 mmt compared to 1.730 mmt this time last year.

USDA monthly crop report comes out at 11 am cst. The USDA will revise old crop demand on the balance sheet and take another look at Southern Hemisphere crops. The corn balance sheet appears more susceptible to tightening in both the domestic and world carryouts; more so than the soybean S&D for this report and that is reflected in the trade estimates shown below. They will not address new crop production until the 30th with the updated acres in addition to the quarterly stocks report.

 

Overnight, the corn market was mixed to start but tended to firm into the wee hours of the night, ultimately finishing 8 cents higher in July and 4-5 cents higher elsewhere by the AM break. Busy day with three reports. First up was Brazil govt’s crop report (CONAB), which revised lower the country’s full

year corn crop to 96.4 (vs. 106.4 prior). Private analysts are either side of 90 mmt? Next up is the weekly export sales report, which were relatively minimal, but at least old crop was a positive number, which is probably more important than the new crop miss. Old crop sales were 189,600 metric tons (Japan #1 buyer, plus cargo booked to China), while new crop was just 26,400 mt. Last but not least, we have the USDA’s monthly crop report due later this morning. The June WASDE rarely generates controversy but USDA curveballs can always be thrown. The primary focus for the markets will likely be world data, particularly Brazil. USDA should continue to slow-walk Brazil lower (they were 102 in May vs. 109 in April)? Other minor tweaks are possible, both world and domestic. We think recent EIA reports are indicative of higher ethanol production, but it may be one month too early for the USDA to report it. World carryout is likely to slide, with Brazil dips unlikely to be offset by increases elsewhere (Argy, South Africa)? Expect a quick ‘refocus’ on weather shortly after the USDA release, and we do not see much change in that outlook from that discussed most of this week (dry for most, warm for some).

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

Morning Comments

July corn -3 ¼ at 6.7675

Aug beans -10 ½ at 15.29

The DOW is UP

USD is Down

Crude oil +.35 at 70.40

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets traded lower on rains reaching into portions of the Northern Plains this week although the forecast returns to a hot/dry pattern after this system moves through suggesting only a temporary benefit for the parched crop areas that receive this near term, yet timely relief. Weather is weighing on flat price as well as the bull spreads for corn and soybeans early on despite the ongoing index fund roll through the end of this week. Other news of market significance is limited.

On the calendar tomorrow we will get export sales in the morning and expectations should be muted. This will be followed by the monthly crop report at 11 am cst. The USDA will revise old crop demand on the balance sheet and take another look at Southern Hemisphere crops. The corn balance sheet appears more susceptible to tightening in both the domestic and world carryouts; more so than the soybean S&D for this report and that is reflected in the trade estimates shown below. They will not address new crop production until the 30th with the updated acres in addition to the quarterly stocks report.

In the product trade, both meal and oil are weaker to start and the oil share spread is steady. Oil is easing back from an all-time high in price while meal is testing key near term support against last month’s lows. The rains in the Canadian Prairies that have stretched down into the N Plains are beneficial to the rapeseed crop prospects and are pressuring the rapeseed futures after establishing a new contract high to begin the week. Malaysian palm oil broke sharply closing -4.4%%.

 

Overnight, the markets were defensive, particularly in new crop positions; by the morning pause, July finished 3 cents lower, Sept 9 cents lower, and Dec 11 cents lower. The market is likely eyeing the radar, where small systems have popped-up in North Dakota, Southern IN/OH, and the SD/NE border, more or less as advertised by forecast models. The same forecasts continue to suggest a smattering of rain at best for the Heart of the Belt, while the 6-10 & 8-14 day outlook maps stay below-normal on precip, so be careful expecting this to be a cure-all? We will get some hard data this morning in the form of the weekly EIA report, and expectations for this one vary widely given recent swings in the data. For our part, we are looking for ethanol production to hold steady or perhaps increase another 1%. Blender demand may retrace 1-2%, as it often does after a major driving holiday (Memorial Day). Residual disappearance should be strong and more than make up for it? We think ethanol stocks will hold steady, or perhaps draw down very slightly. The front-end of the curve was under pressure today, giving back Monday’s gains in the crush. We think most ethanol plants can still earn modest profits in the spot of about 10 c/gal, though that is well below the 40 c/gal seen on recent highs mid-May! 8 AM sales

flashes remain quiet.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

Morning Comments

July corn +8 ½ AT 7.2025

July beans +8 ½ AT 15.96

The DOW is Down

USD is Down

Crude oil -.95 at 63.97

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets started out lower but have firmed back into positive territory with the bull spreads leading in corn, wheat, beans, and meal. Yesterday’s break was primarily weather inspired while today’s recovery looks to be driven by new longs taking advantage of the break ahead of tomorrow’s USDA crop report. The crop report is expected to reinforce the bullish old crop stats and carry them forward into the new crop marketing year as well. Trade estimates are posted below. The USDA announced China bought another 680 tmt of new crop corn.

In the product trade, meal has regained leadership over oil this month as the oilshare correction continues. Rapeseed follows yesterday’s limit move lower with a gap lower trading -$35. The veg oils are acting toppy. Malaysian palm oil is more subdued with some consolidation near its highs, closed -18 or -.41% to 4,350 ringgit.

US soybean planting progress advanced by 18% to 42% complete which was slightly ahead of the avg. trade guess of 40% and compares to the 5 yr avg. of 22%. IL is 57% planted compared to 25% on the 5 yr avg. and IA is 67% planted compared to 30% on the 5 yr avg. LA is only 40% planted compared to the 5 yr avg. of 64%. Soybean emergence was 10% complete compared to the 5 yr avg. of 4%. Corn planting advance by 21% to 67% complete, slightly ahead of the avg. trade guess of 66% and compares to the 5 yr avg. of 52%. Corn emergence was 20% complete compared to 8% last week and the 5 yr avg. of 19%. Spring wheat planting advance by 21% to 70% compared to the 5 yr avg. of 51%. Spring wheat emergence is 29% complete compared to 14% last week and the 5 yr avg. of 20%. Winter wheat G/E ratings improved by 1 to 49% and PVP declined by 1 to 18%.

 

Overnight, the corn market was mixed, but we appear to be setting-up for a classic “Turnaround Tuesday” early; by the morning pause, July Corn finished 8 cents higher and new crop Dec 3 cents better. The early headline was 680,000 metric tons of new crop corn sold to China, which is the third sale in as many days, and brings that total to just over 3 million metric tons. As we have noted, this is their first major foray into the 21/22 crop year, which to this point has been unexcitingly average. The remaining old crop bushels sold to China (~11 mmt) represents a wild card to the 20/21 balance sheet, and if rolled, could end up adding to 21/22. It is an obvious source of rationing to supply corn to other end-user sectors? So far, only cattle, and to a lesser extent dairy, are the only end-users not making money today? Weakness yesterday was tied to weekend rains in the heart of the Belt. It’s still a little chilly; when combined with these rains, it could park planters in the Eastern Belt in particular? By midweek, however, temps are expected to warm-up, which should offer a solid week of planting progress before rains return the middle of next week. The USDA’s Crop Progress data after the close yesterday pegged U.S. corn planting at 67% complete, advancing 21% wk/wk. This is roughly in-line with last year, but 15% ahead of the five year average. 20% of plants have emerged. Look for more position-squaring today in front of the USDA’s monthly crop report tomorrow.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

Morning Comments

July corn -2 ¾ at 7.295

July beans +2 ½ at 15.9225

The DOW is UP

USD is Down

Crude oil +.49 at65.39

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets traded lower with the selling inspired by an improved weather outlook. The US saw rainfall over much of the corn belt (with some notable holes) to be followed by more seasonal temps this week and the prospect for some late but still welcomed rains in Brazil early this week. Impressively, the soy complex caught a bid this morning to rally back to trade unchanged to slightly higher led by the old crop contracts. The USDA May crop report comes out on Wednesday. Trade estimates are posted below. The USDA flashed an old crop corn cancellation of 280 tmt of corn to China along with a new crop sale of 1.020 mmt to China.

In the product trade, there is not much to see early on but the meal market is acting like it wants to follow through on last week’s breakout trade to the topside. Soybean oil is trading weaker along with rapeseed and palm oil from the veg oil side. The US pipeline shutdown from the weekend cyberattack is supporting the energy markets but so far that has not extended to the veg oil trade. Meal is gaining on oil in the oil share spread. Board crush margins are 1-2 cents easier.

Malaysian palm oil closed -59 or -1.3% to 4,368 ringgit. Malaysian Palm Oil Board data for April shows production at 1.522 mmt, just below expectations at 1.55 mln mt, but up from March’s 1.423 mln mt. End of April palm oil stockpiles was 1.545 mmt, higher than expectations at 1.442 mmt, and the 1.443 mmt at the end of March. Exports at 1.338 mmt, above analysts’ forecasts at 1.300 mmt and over the March pace at 1.188 mmt. May 1-10 palm oil exports are seen as +29-37% from the prior month period.

 

Overnight, the ag markets were broadly ‘red’, eyeing weekend rains in the U.S.; by the AM break, July Corn would finish only 3 cents lower, while the Dec ended 10 cents lower. Solid 1-2 inch rains fell in a narrow belt across Eastern Iowa, into N IL, N IN, most of OH, and PA. There was also a smattering of

Rains across select portions of the Dakotas and Plains, though far from a drought-buster, particularly in ND? 6-10 & 8-14 day maps are also warm and wet, which should keep the U.S. farmer mostly happy (for now). Crop Progress tonight should reflect a strong planting pace; we would look for it to come in on

either side of 65% complete. Offsetting the decent U.S. outlook some was ‘hot and dry’ in Brazil, which played-out in-line with most forecasts. AgRural cut their Brazil full year corn crop estimates by almost 8 mmt to 95.5, which is the lowest we have seen to date? U.S. Dollar also continues to hover around a two month low. We have a USDA monthly report due Wednesday; it will offer the USDA’s first ‘official’ opinion on new crop 21/22 balance sheets, though we suspect most analysts will retain their own views post-release? Korea’s FLC bought a cargo of feed wheat overnight. There was another batch of 8 AM flash sales; China bought 1.02 million metric tons of new crop (after buying 1.36 mmt Friday), but did cancel 280,000 metric tons (11 mil bu) of old crop, too.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

Morning Comments

May corn 0 at 5.7725

May beans -8 at 13.95

The DOW is Down

USD is Down

Crude oil +1.23 at 60.55

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets traded weaker with the soy complex and wheat leading to the downside while corn is struggling to stay in positive territory heading into the biscuit break. Old and new crop bean futures have slipped to a two-week low under $14 again although the bull spreads are slightly firmer. The Goldman Roll is on day 3 of 5. Interior processor bean bids remain steady/firm, NOPA March crush data will be released on Thursday where a return to record or near record monthly crush is anticipated following February data that dropped off with weather likely being a factor.

In the product trade, meal and oil are both weaker but meal is gaining in the oil share spread. Canola is trading mixed but Malaysian palm oil closed -3% and is dragging on soybean oil early on.

News from over the weekend is limited and weather is mostly benign. Crop progress this afternoon will update corn planting and corn/wheat conditions, beans will be counted starting next week. US row crop planting pace will accelerate as ground temps begin to warm up. The largest crop concern will continue to be over Brazil’s safrinha corn production where dryness is a concern although it is still early and forecasts hint at better moisture opportunities this coming weekend and through the end of the month.

 

Overnight, the corn market got off to a hot start, nearly trading ten cents higher at one point, before angling back toward unchanged over the balance of the night. May Corn would finish effectively unchanged by the morning pause, closing the initial gap higher; other months posted a penny higher close. There is not much news around early; outside markets are mixed, leaning supportive (crude up, dollar down a little). We will get the second national crop progress report tonight. There was scattered reports of light fieldwork last week, though we suspect insurance restrictions and a cool/wet bias likely limited significant corn planting in all but the very southern reaches of U.S. growing areas. 6-10 & 8-14 day maps are cool and dry; mixed, but should allow for expanded progress soon. There are rains in the forecast for Brazil this weekend and into early next week, which may explain some of the overnight

volatility? Overall, aside from planting, the main story at present is likely the strength in many cash markets. Interesting to note that despite closing higher for nine consecutive weeks, cash ethanol profitability has actually narrowed in recent weeks, due to falling DDG (relative to corn) and rising corn basis. Despite plenty of rumors to the contrary, there has still been no 8 AM corn sales announcements. Today is Day 3 of the Goldman Roll, so look for more wild spread action and volume.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

Morning Comments

May corn +3 ¾ AT 5.835

May beans + ¼ AT 14.155

The DOW is UP

USD is UP

Crude oil -.23 AT 59.37

 

Good morning,

Overnight grain markets traded higher building on yesterday’s momentum ahead of the USDA crop report at 11 am cst. The corn market is challenging contract highs in the old crop and trading into new highs in the Dec new crop near $5. Wheat is extending its recovery trade off recent lows. Meanwhile, the soy complex continues its temporary slumber with a choppy, sideways trade. The bean spreads are mixed with the nearby K-N trading a tick better while N-X is a few ticks lower. Soybean processor bids continue to trend higher while the futures remain stuck for now.

 

In the product trade, back and forth we go as the oil share turns lower with meal gaining on oil early on. Canola is touch lower after trading into a new contract higher yesterday. Malaysian palm oil closed -.63% lower following yesterday’s reversal to the downside.

USDA crop report comes out at 11 am cst today. This report focuses on the old crop balance sheet where demand projections can be adjusted. Corn stocks are expected to be lowered by an avg. guess of 106 mb with larger exports anticipated. Wheat stocks are expected to rise nominally by 9 mb on the avg. guess. Beans are less clear if the USDA will print anything lower than their current 120 mb carryout at this timing. If the USDA decides to increase their soybean exports from the current 2.250 billion bushels, they can offset that demand with an increase in their import number that sits at 35 million bushels as of now. The record for US soybean imports was in 13/14 when we imported 71.7 million bushels, Linn is currently estimating imports of 60 million bushels. The new crop balance sheet reveal comes in the May crop report.

 

Overnight, the corn market kept the rally party rolling, overcoming a slightly weaker start up-front to finish three cents higher across the curve by the morning pause. It is report day, and everyone is expecting the USDA to deliver something friendly. The question is, will it be enough to satisfy a market

pressing into new highs? The April WASDE is generally not a market-mover; the USDA will not offer their thoughts on new crop until next month. It is a pure balance sheet report, and continued strong implied disappearance in last week’s Quarterly Stocks data has the bull on point for a potential upward revision in U.S. demand expectations. We think they will raise exports ~100 million bushels, but will likely pass on any further adjustments for now. The average analyst guess for domestic ending stocks is 1.4 billion vs. 1.5 billion in March. It is also possible the USDA may take a hard look at the world S&D. Most analysts are below the USDA’s South American production forecasts; for instance, CONAB yesterday affirmed a ~105 mmt total Brazil corn crop estimate, which compares to the USDA’s 109 mmt. Some also think they are a little high on Argentina at 47.5 mmt, but a recent tilt towards better weather there may stay their hand another month? China was also out yesterday telling everyone what they already knew; they raised their 20/21 import “forecast” to 22 mmt, from 10 mmt prior (USDA already at 24 mmt?). So, a dip in world carryout is also expected (analyst average at 285 mmt vs. 287.7 in Mar).

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

Morning Comments

May corn +6  ¾ at 5.6725

May beans -1 at 14.0775

The DOW is Down

USD is Down

Crude oil -.44 at 59.33

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets mostly traded higher led by wheat where spring and hrw are reacting to concerns for dryness in the Canadian Prairies and US N Plains, in addition to growing feed demand as values have encouraged cattle feeders to look at hrw as an alternative to high priced corn in some areas. The corn and bean bull spreads are firm from old to new crop with firming basis driving the spreads and in the case of corn, flat price is pushing into the upper end of its trading range. Bean slipped from a couple pennies higher in the old crop to 1 lower headed into the break. The Goldman Roll starts today and could weigh on the front month May contracts as the index funds roll longs out to the July for the next 5 sessions.

 

Overnight, the corn market was quietly firm, though gains accelerated into the final hour of trade, ultimately finishing six cents higher up-front and a few cents better in the new crop as well. The two headlines of the morning thus far were rather unremarkable? Export sales were in-line; net new sales for 20/21 were 757,000 metric tons (mt), along with an extra 50,000 mt for new crop 21/22. Japan and South Korea were the main buyers of record; China picked-up 99,000 metric tons, though most of that was a 70k switch from ‘unknown’ sales. China also exercised 56,100 metric tons of optional origin sales to non-U.S. origin? Corn Sold + Shipped for 20/21 is now 66.5 million metric tons (mmt), which is now notably above the USDA’s sales forecast (66.0). True, nearly one-half of the sales are yet unshipped, but we think the USDA will likely start raising their projection soon. The other major headline was the CONAB (Brazil gov’t) crop report, which up-ticked first season corn production 1 mmt; the total corn crop is now seen 105 mmt, which is close to current USDA thinking. This is obviously weather pending, with most of the safrinha crop (which is over two-thirds of the total) freshly-planted. Expect spreads to be a major feature of trade today; the Goldman Roll kicks-off today and will carry-on for one full week. We also have a monthly USDA report tomorrow.

 

Farmers Averaging $20/Acre or Less in Nascent U.S. Carbon Market: A small fraction of U.S. farmers who have pursued contracts for capturing carbon in the soil – an incentive for climate mitigation – say the going rate is $20 an acre or less, said Purdue University. Payment rates of $15 or $20 are commonly mentioned at present for each ton of carbon dioxide that is sequestered or preserved through reduced emissions. At those prices, growers could spend more on cover crops than they would see in a carbon payment. The seed, equipment, and labor for cover crops ranges from $15 to $75 an acre, says the Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Outreach initiative. On the other hand, Midwestern farmers spent hundreds of dollars an acre to grow corn and soybeans in recent years with relatively small returns, if any, on rented land.

 

French Sugar Beets Face Freeze Losses: Exceptionally cold weather this week may have severely damaged up to 10% of France’s sugar beet area, potentially forcing farmers to replant affected fields, growers’ group CGB said. The group estimated that between roughly 25,000 and 100,000 acres of recently sown sugar beet had suffered massive losses that would require replanting, Timothe Masson, an analyst at the CGB, told Reuters on Wednesday. CGB previously estimated this year’s sugar beet area at around 988,000 acres, already about -6% less than in 2020. The arrival of intense cold just as sugar beet was emerging from the soil is thought to have caused extensive damage in a swathe of cropland south of Paris, Masson said. Tereos, France’s biggest sugar maker, said on Twitter it was assessing damage with its cooperative growers and was in contact with seed suppliers after an “unprecedented phenomenon”.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

Morning Comments

May corn +3 ¼ AT 5.575

May beans +4 ¼ AT 14.23

The DOW is Down

USD is UP

Crude oil .14 at 59.47

 

Good morning,

 

Overnight grain markets traded modestly higher in another quiet, limited range trade. The nearby soybean bull spread is soft today ahead of the Goldman Roll that starts tomorrow where the index funds will be rolling longs from May to July and often creates some front running of the spread, old crop to new crop spread is gaining. Domestic bean basis remains firm at historically elevated levels.

The US GFS weather forecast features cooler temps on the way, and it stays wet across the South while the Midwest will turn drier after the current rains move out later this week. This pattern could slow bean planting progress in the delta in a year where that early supply availability is much more important than normal. USDA will begin updating bean planting progress one week from this coming Monday.

In the product trade, meal is higher and oil steady with the oil share spread looking to relax after three days of gains. Gains in competing veg oils like canola (trading +1.5%) and palm oil (closed +1.1%) may make it difficult to hold down soybean oil today.

USDA crop report comes out on Friday – range and avg. of trade estimates shown below. This report focuses on the old crop balance sheet where demand projections can be adjusted. Corn stocks are expected to be lowered by an avg. guess of 106 mb with larger exports anticipated. Wheat stocks are expected to rise nominally by 9 mb on the avg. guess. Beans are less clear if the USDA will print anything lower than their current 120 mb carryout at this timing. If the USDA decides to increase their soybean exports from the current 2.250 billion bushels, they can offset that demand with an increase in their import number that sits at 35 million bushels as of now. The record for US soybean imports was in 13/14 when we imported 71.7 million bushels, Linn is currently estimating imports of 60 million bushels. The new crop balance sheet reveal comes in the May crop report.

 

Darren, David, and Elizabeth

 

Your browser is out-of-date!

Update your browser to view this website correctly. Update my browser now

×