Morning Commentary

May corn down 2 at $3.565

May beans down 3 ¼ at $8.7725

The DOW is down

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $1.39 at $65.39

Good morning,

Corn bulls continue to struggle as funds hold near record short-portion. The JUL19 contract is down over -13% in the past 52-weeks, down -6% year-to-date, and down just over -3.5% in the past month. The new-crop DEC19 prices are down about -6% in the past 52-weeks and down close to -3% year-to-date. Fundamentally, there’s not a lot of fresh or new in the headlines. Bears continue to talk about weaker demand growth. There’s still talk circulating that the USDA will need to further trim their feed and residual estimate. Exports will continue to be challenged as production estimates in South America creep higher. Keep in mind, SAM corn delivered into Asia is currently -25 cents to -75 cents cheaper than U.S. exported corn.

Soybean prices have been under pressure as of late, but as a whole seem comfortable oscillating in a range between $9.00 and $9.60 for new-crop (NOV19). Overall NOV19 soybean prices are down just over -2% year-to-date and about -9% in the past 52-weeks. Old-crop JUL19 prices have faced a bit more pressure and are down about -14% in the past 52-weeks. The negative headwinds are fairly obvious, no official trade resolution with the worlds #1 buyer of soybeans, and good production being harvested in South America. There’s also the fears and uncertainty surrounding “African Swine Fever” and particularly what it means moving forward? Most inside the trade believe China has lost somewhere between -150 and -200 million pigs.

The South China Morning Post reported that chinese pork prices could rise 70% this year and reach record-high levels in the second half of 2019.

 

Morning Commentary

May corn up ¼ at $3.585

May beans up ½ at $8.795

The DOW is up

USD is stronger

Crude oil up $.24 at $64

Good morning,

Corn continues to trade near contract lows as the U.S. weather forecast shows a few windows of opportunity for future corn planting. At the same time most bears continue to shoot holes in demand growth stories, expecting another downward revision to feed and residual, as well as another slightly reduction to exports by the USDA in the coming months. Ethanol production has actually picked up a bit as of late so I’m hesitant to say the USDA will be making another cut anytime soon. Technically, it feels like the MAY19 corn contract has more significant support in the $3.50 to $3.55 range. The current low in the MAY19 contract was posted at $3.55^2 per bushel. The JUL19 contract is looking at more significant support in the $3.50 to $3.65 range. The current low in the JUL19 contract was posted at $3.64 per bushel. The new-crop DEC19 contract is looking at more significant support in the $3.75 to $3.85 range. The current low in the DEC19 contract was posted at $3.83^2 per bushel.

Soybean bulls would desperately like to stop the bleeding. Prices have now deteriorated to their lowest level since late-October. The biggest headwind seems to be the continued uncertainty surrounding Chinese trade. From what I understand, the U.S. and China have tentatively scheduled another round of negotiations for the last week of April, and Chinese leaders will be coming to Washington the first week of May. If things go well there could be a ceremonial meeting between President Trump and Xi in late-May or perhaps early-June. Bulls were obviously hoping an agreement could be reached much sooner, as U.S. exporters will be facing much stiffer headwinds moving forward. Technically, it feels like the MAY19 contract could find more significant support in the $8.50 to $8.75 range.

Soybean exports totaled 460,700 metric tons last week, with 130,200 metric tons headed to China. This is the lowest weekly U.S. soybean export levels since before the trade war began. (Source: Bloomberg)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that 109 people had been sickened and 17 hospitalized in six states due to an E. coli outbreak form ground beef. At this time, no common supplier, distributor, or brand has been identified, and those who have fallen ill reported consuming ground beef both at restaurants and at home. The CDC has not advised the public to stop eating ground beef, nor have any recalls been ordered. (Source: CDC)

Minnesota To Regulate Nitrogen Fertilizer: The state AG Department is expected to approve in May a regulation that would regulate use of nitrogen fertilizer in areas with vulnerable groundwater beginning in 2020.

 

Morning Commentary

May corn down ¼ at $3.5875

May beans down ½ at $8.875

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.32 at $64.37

Good morning,

Corn prices are steady this morning and continue to trade near contract lows. Bears are pointing to a slightly improved and drier longer-term U.S. weather forecasts and somewhat debatable comments surrounding Chinese trade. Bears point to the fact U.S. producers only had 17% of the entire U.S. corn crop planted last year by the end of April, with 0% reported as planted in Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota. In fact, many big production states like Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, and Ohio were all running well behind their traditional pace at the end of April last year.

Soybean prices are steady this morning after yesterday taking steps towards the lower end of the multi-month trading range. The new-crop NOV19 contract is looking at nearby technical support at $9.18 per bushel. If we look further back on the time horizon, the NOV19 contracted posted a low of $8.98 back on November 1. A bit further back, more like mid-September, the contract posted a low of $8.79^2. Then in mid-July of last year a contract low of $8.64^6 per bushel was posted. These are the support numbers that keep the bears believing there’s more meat on the bone to the downside. Without an official Chinese trade deal, continued headlines and uncertainty surrounding African Swine Fever, very little risk left in the South American crop, and nearly 900 million in U.S. ending stock, it’s not real difficult to convince the bears there’s more meat on the bone to the downside.

At the moment, it appears that China will likely not only lift its ban on U.S. poultry, but also buy more pork from the United States to meet a rising supply deficit, two sources with knowledge of the negotiations recently told Reuters. I should mention that China continues to resist a U.S. push for it to lift its restriction on the drug ractopamine that is used by U.S. hog producers to boost growth. It’s worth noting that, keeping the ban in place benefits companies like Smithfield Foods, a subsidiary of Hong Kong’s WH Group Ltd., that raises most of its hogs without the drug.

Ag Economists are watching how land values hold up in 2019 as other economic challenges continue to cloud this year’s ag outlook. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City last week said there’s potential for lower farmland values moving forward citing an increase in the number of land sales in some states and a shrinking gap between farm profits and interest rates. Understand, land prices have remained strong in parts of the country, but the growing financial stress could lead more farmers to sell land and drive down prices.

Delays in China’s approval process for biotech crops has cost U.S. companies about $5 billion. According to experts, some biotech products are waiting more than six years for approval in China and without any scientific basis for these lengthy delays. Industry groups and U.S. lawmakers have been urging the Trump administration to press China to make its regulatory process for approving agricultural biotech products more transparent and timely. (Source: CNBC)

 

MORNING COMMENTS

Good Morning    

Current Markets as of         8:00     Tuesday, April 16, 2019

 

Month                                           High                               Low                                 Change                                    Last

May 19 Corn                            $3.62 ½                           $3.61                                $ – 1 ¾                                    $3.61                                                           

Dec 19 Corn                             $3.90 ½                           $3.88 ¾                          $ – 2                                        $3.88 ¾                                                                       

May 19 Beans                          $8.99                                $8.95 ¾                          $ – 2 ¾                                   $8.96                         

Nov 19 Beans                          $9.31                                 $9.28                               $ – 2 ¾                                    $9.28 ¼  

 

Grain markets will close at their regular time on Thursday and will not re-open until Sunday night, April 21st, at 7:00 in observance of Good Friday holiday.    

Oil    $63.60   Higher      Gold   $1,280   Lower     Dow $26,580   Higher      Wheat $4.54 Lower

The Des Moines ethanol low rack price is $2.0171. This is $0.2191 lower than the unleaded gas low price of $2.2362. 

Corn Support is $3.61 and resistance is $3.81.  Beans Support is $8.87 and resistance is $9.22. Funds bought 40 Million (8,000 Contracts) of corn and bought 20 Million (4,000) contracts of beans Monday. Just over 86,000 contracts traded last night. 

AgRural estimating Brazilian soy harvest at 88% complete, 3% ahead of the five-year average 

March NOPA crush came in at 170.011 million bushels, down 1.07% from a year ago. YTD NOPA crush stands at 1.168 billion bushels, up 4.35% from a year ago while the USDA is estimating annual crush to rise 2.1%. 

US corn plantings reported at 3% complete versus 2% a week ago and 5% on average. The weekly Crop Progress report indicated NASS release soybean planting progress estimates in next week’s report 

The average trade estimate for Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report has the number of cattle on feed as of April 1st at 101.8% of a year ago. Placements in March are pegged at 103.8%. Marketed in March are estimated at 96.8% of a year ago 

Weather: More precip arrives in the northern Plains and belt over the next 24 hours, then the southern and eastern belt Wed/Thurs; the next system is ahead late weekend into early-week next week, while the 6-10 and 11-15 day maps today are running wetter for the Plains. Temps remain warm going forward

Brazilian rain chances continue in northern crop areas this week then the south next weekend and again in the 11-15 day time frame; Argentina will see widespread rains this week 

EARLY MARKET FEATURES

Corn – Sideways price action continues as corn tries to work off oversold conditions on the charts

Beans – Despite choppy trade action, the downtrend in place from early February remains entrenched

Have a great Tuesday!   Darren, Brady and David

Gold-Eagle Cooperative Providing Quality Services and Products Innovatively, Profitably, and Professionally. 

Morning Commentary

May corn up 2 ¼ at $3.6325

May beans up 4 at $8.9925

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil down $.50 at $63.39

Good morning,

Corn traders continue to monitor U.S. weather and Chinese trade negotiations. Heavy snows across the northern Plains, some areas dealing with +24 inches, and rains in the forecast, continue to complicate 2019 planting. Funds remain aggressively short, believing there’s plenty of time left on the calendar to get the crop planted. Traditionally, most insiders have always talked about 80% of the entire U.S. crop being planted by about the third week of May. If that begins to look unachievable, I suspect we will see the bears start to backpedal a bit and few more weather bulls enter the market. Unfortunately, the combination of the greatest producers in the world and the best technology available, now makes it possible for 30% to 40% of the entire U.S. crop to get planted in just one week with the right window of opportunity.

Soybean bulls are hoping U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s positive comments over the weekend regarding Chinese trade negotiations will help keep prices supported. U.S. weather is being digested as mixed to slightly bearish as traders see heavy snow, rains and delays to corn planting perhaps leading to more soybean acres? Bears also point to South American supplies become more readily available, their crop production estimates creeping higher, and more longer-term uncertainties involving China and the negative impact of African Swine Fever.

Rabobank is reporting that up to 200 million pigs could be culled or die form being infected as African Swine Fever spreads through China. By far, this is the highest such forecast yet and underscores the gravity of the epidemic in the world’s top pork producer. Such a number would mark a huge chunk of the nation’s pig herd, which stood at 360 million animals late last year. (Source: Reuters)

China’s soybean imports in March jumped 10% from the previous month, as shipments from both the United States and Brazil reached the world’s top oilseed buyer, customs data showed on Friday. China imported 4.92 million tonnes in March, up from 4.46 million tonnes in February, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Imports were still down 13% from the same month a year earlier.

Last week, Vietnam announced it is banning the importation of glyphosate. It came after the most recent glyphosate verdict went against Bayer in a California court. U.S. Sec. of Ag Sonny Perdue spoke out about the decision saying this would have devastating impacts on global agricultural production. Vietnam’s government said in a statement that the toxic level of herbicides containing glyphosate had long been of concern and the ban would take effect in June. Perdue said the U.S. government had shared scientific studies with Vietnam concluding that glyphosate is unlikely to pose a carcinogenic hazard to humans. (Source: USDA)

For four decades, the average age of farmers has been on the rise. It was 50.3 years for the “principal operator” in the 1978 census, 53.3 years in 1992, 57.1 years in 2007, 58.3 years in 2012, and now is 59.4 years. By contrast, the average age of new and beginning farmers is 46.3 years, says the 2017 census.

 

Morning Commentary

May corn unchanged at $3.60

May beans unchanged at $8.9525

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.93 at $64.51

Good morning,

Corn bears are pointing to weaker than expected U.S. export sales data, in fact, no sales reported for new-crop. There’s also talk circulating from China grain buyers who are doubtful the Chinese government will agree to buy 10 MMTs of U.S. corn for the immediate future. The trend is negative.  Closing under 351.25 should lead to a test of the low 340 area.  Stable action over 373.25 is needed to improve the short term outlook.  Based on the trade count, look for the fund to be record short (276,000 lots) in tonight’s CIT report. 

Soybean traders are also pointing to weaker than expected U.S. soybean exports. The USDA showed only 270,400 metric ton were exported form the U.S. last week, a number that was down over -70% from the previous four-week average. Let’s not forget, at the same time the South America crop estimates are creeping higher and U.S. planted soybean acres might also be pushing higher. There’s also continued talk and rumors of African Swine Fever doing more damage than currently estimated to the Chinese pork industry. Bottom-line, with ample supply globally, near record supply here in the U.S., and the worlds top buyer of soybeans walking back demand estimates, it’s tough for the bulls to string together much momentum, especially without a wide-spread weather story. The trend is negative.  Closing under 890.75 opens the door for a drop to 877.75.  Stable action over 910.75 is needed to improve the short term outlook.  

Kentucky Fresh Harvest, a hydroponic greenhouse operator, raised $520,000 through a crowdfunding appeal for money to build a facility that could grow 3 to 4 million cherry tomatoes a year. Hydroponics is a method of growing plants without soil by using mineral nutrient solutions in a water solvent. (Source: HortiDaily)

Farmers can now for the first time insure their produce against price volatility as easily as insuring their homes, with a global platform based on hundreds of niche commodity indexes, underwritten by Lloyd’s of London syndicate Ascot. The new products have been made possible by recent advances in data science and the reduced cost of running the trillions of computer simulations needed to calculate risks across the portfolio of commodity indexes used by the platform’s developer Stable. I’m told Stable is a British-based start-up whose investors include agrochemical company Syngenta, seed stage investor Anthemis Group and Swiss insurer Baloise Group, as well as Ascot. From what I understand, there have been about 450 farmers to use the platform so far, which has been running for eight weeks. It will be interesting to see what traction the platform gets moving forward and when or if it becomes available in the U.S. At the moment, the platform is currently available for farmers in Britain, France, Russia, South Africa, Poland, the Netherlands, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, Brazil, Uruguay, Sweden, Croatia, Portugal and Spain.

 

Morning Commentary

May corn down ½ at $3.6125

May beans down 3 ½ at $8.985

The DOW is up

USD is stronger

Crude oil down $.80 at $63.81

Good morning,

Corn bulls are hoping another round of extreme weather in key U.S. growing regions will help shake some of the bears. The fear is that bears are looking a bit further out in the forecast and see larger windows of planting opportunity. Remember, with all of the new technology, most estimate that the U.S. producer can plant between 30% to 40% of our nations entire corn crop in just one-weeks time. I also continue to hear bears talking about another round of demand cuts by the USDA. Several insiders are saying Feed and Residual demand will need another reduction, while exports and ethanol might also need another small haircut? Ethanol data released yesterday, actually showed another slight improvement in weekly output, pushing back north of +1.0 million barrels per day and stock were trimmed by almost -800,000 barrels.

Soybean bulls continue to point towards comments from Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who said China was committed to “significant” orders for U.S. soybeans. USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue also made positive comments this week. Demand seems to be mostly steady with the USDA most recently leaving crush and exports unchanged. I suspect we will see another round of strong weekly export sales data this morning as China continues to take small nibbles.

Sources say China may be considering an end to its investigation of alleged dumping of U.S.-produced DDGs. Reuters cited a document that a Chinese industry group sent to member companies. It was not clear whether the review would lead to any tariff relief for producers of the ethanol byproduct, commonly used in livestock feed. (Source: Reuters)

Starting with the May issue, changes will be made to the WASDE report including: price range forecasts will be eliminated in favor of single price points for all crops and livestock; The international Supply and Use tables for Crops will include an aggregate value for “World less China” representing the balance sheet values outside of China; The ordering of countries and lists of Major Importers/Exporters will be updated to eliminate outdated aggregations (such as Former Soviet Union) and better reflect current trade patterns.

 

Morning Commentary

May corn up 1 at $3.61

May beans unchanged at $8.9875

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.31 at $64.29

Good morning,

Corn traders appear little phased by the latest round of bearish USDA data. As many inside the trade had been expecting, the USDA delivered downward revisions across the board for corn demand. Feed and residual was lowered -75 million bushels to 5.300 billion; Corn used to produce ethanol was lowered -50 million bushels to 5.500 billion; Exports were reduced -75 million bushels to 2.300 billion, reflecting current outstanding sales and expectations of increased competition from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. In total, U.S. ending stocks were pushed higher by +200 million bushels to 2.035 billion. Global stocks also became more burdensome with global corn production raised +5.3 million tons to 1.377.2 billion. The trend is negative.  Closing under 351.25 should lead to a test of the low 340 area.  Stable action over 373.25 is needed to improve the short term outlook.  Algorithms likely have sell stops below 352.5. 

Soybean price appear as if they want to remain range-bound. The USDA opted to leave U.S. exports and domestic crush “unchanged”. Interestingly seed usage was raised from 96 to 98 million. Imports were slightly reduced from 20 million down to 17 million. In the end, U.S. ending stocks were lowered slightly from 900 million down to 895 million, which is still considered extremely burdensome. Global production is raised +2.0 million tons to 595.0 million mainly on higher soybean production for Brazil and rapeseed production for India. Production for Brazil is increased +0.5 million tons to 117.0 million, reflecting favorable weather in Rio Grande do Sul where the crop is in pod-filling and maturation stages. The trend is negative.  Closing under 890.75 opens the door for a drop to 877.75.  Stable action over 910.75 is needed to improve the short term outlook. 

China may be exploring ending the anti-dumping investigation into US DDGS imports after the ministry of commerce responded to a request from the US Grains Council to review the current situation, market sources have told Agricensus Tuesday. President and CEO of the US Grains Council, Tom Sleight, confirmed that the council had raised the question of the review with the Chinese government. (Source: Agricensus)

The USDA is offering loans to upgrade rural electric systems in order to reduce energy costs and improve quality of life for people who live and work in rural America. The funding includes nearly $7.1 million for smart grid technologies that improve system operations and monitor grid security. The financing will improve electric infrastructure in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, South Dakota and Texas, building or improving 2,635 miles of power lines.

 

Morning Commentary

May corn up ¼ at $3.6275

May beans up 1 ½ at $9.005

The DOW is down

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.13 at $63.21

Good morning,

Corn traders are debating the balance sheet ahead of tomorrow’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Bears are pointing to downward revisions coming to corn used for ethanol, exports and perhaps a more significant cut coming to feed and residual usage. In fact, following the Quarterly Stocks Report, I’ve heard some bears thinking the USDA could reduce feed and residual by -50 to -150 million bushels. As for ethanol, many inside the trade are thinking we could see -50 to -100 million bushel reduction in corn used for ethanol. There’s similar type of talk circulating regarding corn for exports, perhaps a -50 to -100 million bushels reduction in estimated demand, especially with such improved production in South America this year compared to last year.

U.S. corn being exported during the 2018/19 marketing year rates No. 2 or better on all grade factors, according to the U.S. Grain Council analysis. The corn tested had lower average stress cracks, higher average 100 kernel weight, slightly higher average kernel true density and a higher average percent of whole kernels compared to the same analysis done in 2017/18. (Source: USGC)

Soybean prices prices are fairly steady this morning ahead of tomorrow’s monthly USDA report. Bulls rallied prices last week on more bullish optimism surrounding Chinese trade negotiations. Bears however, believe the window of opportunity for U.S. exporters is closing and the South American crops have improved a bit the past few weeks. Bears also argue that U.S. demand might be a touch overrated. Presenting numbers that show the current U.S. domestic crush estimate might be a bit too optimistic. At the same time, U.S. exports might also be overly optimistic without some unforeseen heavier old-crop buying from the Chinese.

The Iowa Farm Bureau Federation said the state’s economic damage from last month’s catastrophic flooding will likely surpass $2 billion; farmers there will struggle to plant as many as 145,000 flooded acres along the Missouri River. U.S. Corps of Engineers said March runoff from the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, IA set a record at 11 million acre feet. The previous high was 7.3 million acre feet set in 1952. (Source: DesMoines Register)

Scientists at The Roslin Institute in Edingburgh are now studying ways to identify the genes that are important in reducing infection by Influenza A virus in pigs and chickens as well as genes that limit the spread of the virus to people. Keep in mind, Influenza A viruses have infected many different animals, including ducks, chickens, pigs, whales, horses, and seals. However, certain subtypes of the infectious virus are specific to certain species, except for birds, which are hosts to all known subtypes of influenza A viruses. In case you were wondering, the circulating Influenza A subtypes in humans are H3N2 and H1N1 viruses. It’s worth mentioning, Influenza A viruses that typically infect and transmit among one animal species sometimes can cross over and cause illness in another species. For example, until 1998, only H1N1 viruses circulated widely in the U.S. pig population. However, in 1998, H3N2 viruses from humans were introduced into the pig population and caused widespread disease among pigs, and more recently, H3N8 viruses from horses have crossed over and caused outbreaks in dogs. While it is unusual for people to get influenza infections directly from animals, sporadic human infections and outbreaks caused by certain avian influenza A viruses have been reported. Keeping us relatively safe from the jump is the arm of our immune system, known as the host interferon response, which fortunately provides a significant barrier to the virus spreading from animals to people. But now the new study at the Roslin Institute, will investigate which genes are important for inhibiting replication of Influenza A virus in pigs and chickens and which genes of the host interferon response limit the spread of the virus from animals to people. I’m told the researchers will receive nearly $1 million to move the ball forward in understanding how to combat influenza strains, and using the recent developments of genome wide CRISPER libraries for livestock species, it is hoped that researchers will soon have answers to combat both the economic burden caused by outbreaks as well as avoiding any potential for pandemic human outbreaks. I should mention researchers there have already been successful using CRISPR to produce pigs that are potentially resistant to Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome, and hope to do the same with African Swine Flu.(Source: CDC, Poultryworld, feedstuff)

Morning Commentary

May corn down 2 ¼ at $3.63

May beans down 5 at $9.015

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.13 at $62.23

Good morning,

Corn  prices are down a bit this morning but bulls have slowly rallied prices this week on optimism surrounding Chinese trade and greater uncertainty regarding planted U.S. corn acres in 2019. We could also argue the perhaps a few bears have backpedaled a bit this week as well on similar headlines. There’s also more talk inside the trade that the USDA might make an adjustment lower to the U.S. export estimate in the coming months, especially if nothing official comes from Chinese trade negotiations. The bears also believe the USDA could make another small reduction in their corn used for ethanol estimate. Bulls are hoping the USDA  can offset some of that demand reduction by increase corn used for feed. The argument is that livestock numbers are and have been on the rise.

Soybean prices backpedal a bit this morning, giving back some of yesterday’s gains as President Trump insinuates a trade deal could still be a few more weeks away. Bulls we’re hoping to hear that President Trump and Chinese leader Xi were scheduling an official trade summit. Bears believe even with a Chinese trade deal, the window of opportunity is closing for U.S. exporters to be competitive in comparison to South America. With a record amount of U.S. supply, +900 million bushels, and talk inside the trade of increasing soybean acres compared to the most recent USDA estimate, the bears believe they can somewhat keep a lid on prices.

China Reports Another New African Swine Fever Outbreak: The outbreak was found on a group of 10 pig farms in the city of SHangri-Law with 301 hogs in total. The disease killed 105 of the animals. China has already reported more than 100 outbreaks of African swine fever since it was first detected last August. (Source: Reuters)

USDA Cutting Inspectors by 40%: The pork industry will soon have more oversight of its own production as the Trump administration plans to cut 40% of USDA inspectors at pork plants and replace them with plant employees. The new regulations — including more employee-led inspections and faster processing lines — have been in the works for more than a year and emerge after a 15-year federal pilot program instituted at five plants across the country. About 40 of the country’s 612 pork plants will soon start operating under the new system, impacting 90% of the pork produced in the U.S. (Source: Food Dive)

Are Diesel Prices Headed Higher? GasBuddy.com Senior Petroleum Analyst Dan McTeague thinks so as he points to increases in overall demand, combined with a slowdown in heavy oil production, the federal carbon tax, and the coming IMO 2020 regulations. The latter being the International Marine Organization’s reductions in sulfur content in all marine fuels from 3.5 per cent to 0.5% by January 1, 2020. “It’s the perfect trifecta of bad news,” McTeague said. The analyst suggested people also keep a watchful eye on the value of the Canadian dollar to the United States dollar. He said there has been some speculation that the loonie could plummet to 62 U.S. cents during the course of 2019. “If that’s the case, look for another 13-cent increase,” McTeague said of diesel prices. Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group in Chicago said the lack of heavy oil has been taking its toll. Diesel prices in the U.S. are at their highest average so far in 2019 at US$3.08 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Flynn suggested an increase to US$3.20 per gallon is possible.

 

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