Morning Commentary

May corn down ¾ at $3.54

May beans down ½ at $8.765

The DOW is up

USD is stronger

Crude oil up $.23 at $65.78

Good morning,

Corn bulls are pointing to more rain in the forecast for several areas that have been slow to get in the fields. The USDA released numbers yesterday that estimates about 6% of the U.S. corn crop is now planted. That is a bit behind what most had anticipated and well behind the more traditional pace of about 12% planted by this date. Bears are saying there’s still plenty of time to get the crop in the ground and more reports are circulating from big production states like Iowa and Illinois that many producers are now rolling. The trend is negative.  Closing under 351.25 on the weekly chart should lead to a test of the low 340 area.  Stable action over 373.25 is needed to improve the short term outlook.  May vol is implying a 348-360 trading range this week. 

Soybean bears are pointing to another round of weaker than expected weekly export inspections and more talk that U.S. export demand might need to be trimmed. There’s also continued talk that the USDA’s current planted soybean acreage estimate could easily move higher rather than lower, especially if we continue to see weather related delays in corn planting. Technically, there’s some talk the bears are trying to make a run for the lows set back in late-October. The USDA reported soybean planting at just 1% complete, which is slightly lagging our traditional pace. The only states showing any notable activity were: Louisiana and Mississippi each 16% planted but running at half their traditional pace. Arkansas is 6% planted vs. the historical pace of 18% by this date. Kentucky and Tennessee were both 1% planted and mostly on pace. The trend is negative.  An inability to rebound from  877.75 on the weekly chart suggests a drop to 856.75 perhaps trend channel support round 850.  Stable action over 910.25 is needed to improve the short term outlook.  May vol is implying a 865-887 trading range this week. 

More Cases of African Swine Fever Found in China: The Asian nation plagued with an ongoing epidemic of African swine fever has announced new cases in six farms across four locations in Hainan province. The disease has spread to every province on the Chinese mainland since its initial detection in August 2018. Among 517 pigs across the six farms, 146 had died of the disease. (Source: Reuters

A growing coalition of lawmakers is looking to overhaul Chapter 12 bankruptcy rules as farmers and ranchers continue to face economic challenges including trade tension and low income levels. How the plan could work is farmers currently must have less than $4.15 million in debt to qualify for Chapter 12 bankruptcy, per the Congressional Research Service. The debt threshold, which was set in the 1980s, doesn’t reflect the growth in average farm size or the rise in farmland values, according to proponents of the measure. (Source: Politico)

Low emission cows are being genetically selected by British scientists so they can be bred into the national herd to combat climate change by reducing their methane-emitting burps. Researchers are investigating which breeds and strains of cows produce the least methane, a gas with the global warming potential 28 times that of carbon dioxide. Livestock are blamed for having a bigger impact on climate change than cars, accounting for 14.5 per cent of global greenhouse emissions compared to 14 per cent from transport. Professor Eileen Wall, a leading researcher in livestock genetics at Scotland’s Rural College, said they had found that even within the same breed of beef cattle, methane emissions could vary from 170 grammes a day to 330 grammes a day. She said farmers were already developing breeding programmes that reduce the amount of food they had to feed cattle, while still producing similar-sized animals, which in itself could help tackle climate change.


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