Morning Commentary

July corn up 1 ¼ at $4.29

July beans up 2 ¼ at $8.615

The DOW is down

USD is stronger

Crude oil down $1.42 at $51.85

Good morning,

Corn  traders are adjusting to the latest balance sheet updates by the USDA. The U.S. planted acreage estimate was lowered by -3 million to 89.8 million. The U.S. average yield estimate was more dramatically reduced, lowered by -10 bushels per acre from 176 down to 166 per acre. Total U.S. production is lowered from 15.030 billion bushels down to 13.680 billion. Let’s keep in mind, “harvested acres” were only dropped from 85.4 million down to 82.4 million. The USDA already elected to lower total demand by -425 million bushels, cutting feed and residual demand by -300 million, and lowering U.S. exports by -125 million. Imports are raised by +15 million bushels. . In total, new-crop ending stocks are slashed by a whopping -810 million bushels to 1.675 billion, which if realized, would be the lowest ending stock number since 2013/14. The short term trend for July corn is bullish.  Stable trade over 426 alerts for a return to trending advances.  Closing below 415.75 signals a correction. 

Soybean  traders could be more confused than ever as the USDA elects to leave total new-crop acres and yield “unchanged”. The USDA did cut -75 million bushels from old-crop soybean demand, which caused ending stocks to jump higher by +75 million bushels from 970 million to 1.045 billion. The 2019/20 soybean global ending stocks are lowered just slightly by -0.4 million tons.  The short term trend for July beans is neutral.  Closing under 846.5 signals a deeper correction.  Stable trade above 876.75 will signal renewed rallies.  

Farmers National Company Seeing Uptick in Farmland Sales: After six years of a downturn in the ag economy and expected overall net farm income for 2019 projected to be down -50% from 2013, Famers National Company is seeing an increase in the number of sales by financially stressed growers.


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