Morning Commentary

May corn up 6 ¼ at $3.155

May beans up 5 ¾ at $8.365

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $1.17 at $12.74

Good morning,

Corn offers up very little in the way of fresh news or headlines. Bears are looking for another round of dismal ethanol numbers in the wake of the crude oil collapse. Most inside the trade suspect to see 50% of the industry’s capacity offline by next week. The trade is also still digesting the negative headlines associated with temporary meat packing plant closures and the backing up of livestock, meaning perhaps less nearby feed demand for corn. At the same time, mostly cooperative U.S. weather keeps talk of +94 million corn acres in play.

Soybean bulls are hoping to find new demand as the market bounce off fresh contract lows. Tuesday’s key reversal suggests a turn in the trend for July beans. Stable action above 827.75 signals a return to higher trade. Closing over 859 confirms the turn. A failure at 827.75 signals new lows for the move. Funds (excluding index types) are thought to be short 12,000 lots on a futures and options basis.

China’s agriculture ministry said on Tuesday it had detected the deadly African swine fever virus in pigs transported to the southwestern province of Sichuan, the latest in a dozen such cases in the last two months.  In the latest incident the virus was found in pigs on a truck stopped for inspection in Nanjiang county near Bazhong city. The truck carried more than 100 pigs and two had died, the ministry said. Cases reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs had dwindled to just a couple per month by the end of last year, but 13 have been posted on the ministry’s website since March. All of the cases, apart from one found in wild boar, were in pigs being transported between provinces. Vice agriculture minister Yu Kangzhen said on Monday that the risk of African swine fever had increased significantly recently as farmers rush to rebuild their herds and move young pigs into new farms. (Source: Reuters)

Low market prices will deter farmers from planting as much corn as they planned a month ago, but a record corn crop is still on the horizon, according to two Purdue University economists. The mammoth crop would create the largest corn stockpile since the late 1980s while the already-large soybean stockpiles grow bigger still. “We think planted corn acreage could easily fall 1 million acres below” the estimated 97 million acres in USDA’s Prospective Plantings report,” said economist James Mintert. “It might even be more that that…In our balance sheets, we simply move that million acres over to soybeans.” With normal weather and yields, the corn harvest could total 15.6 billion bushels, the largest ever, even if plantings drop to 96 million acres. If soybean plantings rise to 84.5 million as Mintert suggested, the crop would total 4.1 billion bushels, the fourth-largest on record.(Ag Insider)


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