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Morning Commentary

July corn up 3 ¾ at $3.2075

July beans up 1 at $8.66

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.38 at $38.87

Good morning,

Corn traders have all eyes on the USDA’s June 1 Quarterly Stocks and June Acreage Report, which are scheduled for release tomorrow.  Even if the USDA shows a -1 to -3 million reduction in planted acres, bears can point to mostly cooperative weather and a realistic chance at record-setting yield +180 bushels per acre. Meaning we will still be talking about ending stocks up around 3.0 billion bushels. What we need is some type of bullish surprise on the “demand” side of the balance sheet but at the moment there’s just not a lot to chew on.

Soybean traders continue to debate U.S. and Chinese relations and ongoing political uncertainties. In my opinion, “demand” remains a big unknown. The trade seems to be mostly in agreement that U.S. planted acres are moving higher and mostly cooperative weather to this point is adding to a higher yield forecast. Meaning, the trade has come to the conclusion that total U.S. production is on track and looking good. Now it becomes all about China.

U.S. food and feed exporters are shipping goods to China with letters assuring the safety of their cargo in lieu of official declarations requested by Chinese authorities that guarantee coronavirus-free shipments, a U.S. agricultural export group said on Friday. The commitment statements, drafted by the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC), are meant only to assure importers that shipments have been harvested, processed and handled consistent with industry safety standards and guidelines from medical experts. The move comes after China’s customs authority last week asked food exporters to the country to sign official declarations their produce is not contaminated by the novel coronavirus. Peter Friedmann, executive director of AgTC, which represents mostly exporters of U.S. agricultural products in shipping containers, says it’s not possible for exporters to guarantee a cargo will remain virus free once it leaves their facilities.

As many as 2 million hogs are backed up on U.S. farms because of coronavirus slowdowns and shutdowns at meatpacking plants, with the backlog expected to persist into the fall. Economist David Miller of Decision Innovation Solutions estimated a backlog of 1.2 million hogs. He also calculated that 2.1 million head had disappeared since March 1, either through direct sales and custom butchering or because of euthanasia by farmers. During a teleconference sponsored by the National Pork Board, Miller said that “as long as we’re backing up hogs,” market prices this fall could be 20% to 25% lower than a year ago.

 

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