Dec corn down ½ at $3.7025
Nov beans up 1 at $8.645
The DOW is up
USD is weaker
Crude oil up $.69 at $69.34
Corn bulls are keeping an extremely close eye the “demand” story. Earlier this week, we had a little downtick in ethanol production and a further build in surplus. Yesterday, we were hit with the weakest weekly export data of the new marketing year and well below market expectations. Not only was the sales number extremely weak, but we also had to digest a sizable cancelation from an “unknown” destination. Mexico, Japan, Columbia, Egypt and South Korea remained buyers of U.S. corn, but in small quantity. The trend is slightly positive but momentum is down. Pullbacks that hold former resistance at 369-369.5 leaves a short term target of 380+ in place. A close under 362.25 warns of a setback. System types are long risking 369. Look for a two-sided trade with hedge pressure on the close.
Soybean bears come back up to bat with prices now down about -30 cents from Monday’s high. Negative headlines surrounding exports, trade negotiations with the European Union and no headway to report regarding China, has the bears back in the market. Keep in mind, weekly net export sales for U.S. soybeans were reported at their lowest level of the new marketing year. There was data circulating inside the trade yesterday that shows total Chinese soybean commitments from the U.S. are down -91.5% compared to this time last year. . The short term trend has weakened and is only slightly positive. Momentum is down. Closing under 861.5 warns of a deeper correction phase. A close over 880.75 is needed to prompt a surge to new highs for the move. Given a sell signal Thursday, system types are short; risking 890.75. Having tested key short term support overnight (low 860-area) look for a recovery today. Expect hedge pressure on the close.
Pork imports from Poland are being suspended over concerns surrounding African swine fever. The halt comes as the USDA plans to review Poland’s export protocols following the finding that a facility had shipped pork to the U.S. without following the requirements designed to prevent any spreading of the deadly disease.
Trump is asking federal department leaders to show up to the next meeting with a plan to trim 5% form their budgets. The USDA may try to slash the taxpayer-subsidized crop insurance program, eliminate a green-payment program, or take an ax to its research agencies, if recent proposals are any indication. Crop insurance has been a target every time President Trump has sent a budget package to Congress. Just a few days ago, the administration reported that the overall budget deficit reached a six-year high. (Source: Ag Insider)