Morning Commentary

Dec corn down 1 ¼ at $3.74

Nov beans down 1 ¾ at $8.83

The DOW is down

USD is stronger

Crude oil down $.58 at $71.34

Good morning,

Corn traders continue to debate U.S. yield and how much if any reductions the USDA will be making based on harvest weather hiccups? Bears think the yield will remain slightly above 180 bushels per acre, bulls believe we ultimately end up just shy of 180 bushel per acre. Weather in South America remains cooperative and most sources are looking for a sizable jump in total corn production. Early talk coming out of Brazil is for a crop north of +95 MMT, which would be significantly higher than last years 82 MMTs. Keep in mind, during the 2016-17 crop year Brazil harvested a 98.5 MMT corn crop, so there’s clearly room for massive improvement compared to last year. As for Argentina, most all sources are showing early forecasts north of +40 MMTs, which is also significantly higher than the 32 MMTs they harvested last year. In other words, if weather cooperates, the global balance sheet could be chewing on an additional +20 to +25 MMTs of South American corn.

Soybean bears are pointing to a dryer and warmer U.S. forecast for the second half of October. Bulls are pointing to harvest complications for a large portion of the Western belt. Most concerning perhaps is the fact our top-producing state of Iowa is reported it’s slowest ever pace for harvesting the crop. The USDA estimated the total U.S. harvest as being the slowest in nine-years. The question now being debated is how much yield loss or drag will be seen as the crop sits delayed in the field?

A New Jersey-based company, Zoetis, will have sole rights to market a first-of-its-kind vaccine for the deadly African swine fever a disease threatening pork production in China and Eastern Europe. (Source: FeedStuffs)

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association an other are petitioning the Department of Transportation to increase the amount of time for which truckers can drive. Current federal regulations limit truckers to 11 hours of driving time and 14 hours of total 0n-duty time. The ag groups want to see the drive time increase to 15 hours per day and total on-duty time to 16 hours daily, following 10 consecutive hours off. They hope this will help drivers make deliveries on time.


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