Morning Commentary

Dec corn up ¼ at $3.70

Jan beans down 4 ¼ at $8.825

The DOW is down

USD is stronger

Crude oil up $.90 at $61.09

Good morning,

Corn prices appear to remain comfortable in a trading range between $3.50 and $3.90 per bushel. Many argue the nearby range is more like $3.60 to $3.80 per bushel. Bears are still pointing to a few possible holes developing in the demand story. Ethanol plants across the country are battling tighter margins and I’m hearing of more plants coming offline or reducing run rates. Remember, China had recently been our number two destination for U.S. ethanol.  Technically, the upside in the DEC18 contract appears to remain fairly limited by heavier nearby resistance up between $3.80 and $3.90 per bushel. Keep in mind, the 200-Day Moving Average is right around $3.86.

Soybean bulls are happy to see prices rebound from the recent lows. Bulls continue to believe any steps in the direction of a trade resolution with China will drive prices higher, regardless of record U.S. ending stocks. Some inside the trade argue there’s a temporary “geopolitical put” in place until the scheduled G20 meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi. Any rumors or headlines that the two leaders are getting closer to a deal, prices will push higher. Bulls are also more closely monitoring South American weather, which becomes much more important during the next 60 to 90 days. Heavier rains in Argentina and the very real possibility of some acres needing to be replanted could help keep nearby prices supported.  Interestingly, the NOV18 contract is trading only about -60 cents less than the NOV17 contract last year at this time.

Iowa is the nation’s 10th-largest milk producer, with 1,150 dairy farms, and it’s lost about 80 dairy operations this year — nearly 7 percent. Wisconsin Agricultural Statistics Service data show the state had 8,304 licensed dairy herds in October — 634 fewer than a year ago. The proposed United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, which is expected to gain some dairy access in Canada, is not expected to change that. Regional leaders view the possible gains from the agreement “as too small and too far in the future to help (U.S.) dairy farmers,” said the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank recently. (Source: APnews)

Chinese-owned Smithfield, will sell 144,000 pounds of pork products — or $240,000 worth — to the federal government under the Trump administration’s trade assistance program for U.S. agribusinesses and farmers hurt by tariffs.


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