Morning Commentary

May corn down ¾ at $3.65

May beans down 2 ¼ at $8.9475

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.67 at $57.54

Good morning,

Corn prices are giving back a bit of yesterday’s gains. Bulls were happy to hear the EPA is taking the steps needed to get E15 approved for year-round use. Current restrictions prevent E15 from being sold between June 1st and September 15th. There’s some debate if they can get everything in place and approved to have much of an impact this summer and increase the demand for ethanol. At the same time, it would be huge if we could ink a deal with the Chinese and kick back up our exports of U.S. ethanol and DDGs.

Soybean prices are lower this morning. Yesterday, bulls were happy to hear top U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer tell leaders attending a Senate Finance Committee hearing in Washington, “Our hope is we are in the final weeks of having an agreement.” Unfortunately, he also stated there are still big issues that need to be worked out between the U.S. and China. “If those issues are not resolved in favor of the United States, we won’t have a deal.” Bulls were also happy to hear more talk of fewer planted acres here at home during 2019.

ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus and Brazil’s Amaggi have commissioned a study on operating a 968 kilometer stretch of the BR-163 highway for 10 years. The highway is the leading grain artery to northern ports that were responsible for 28% of Brazil’s soybean and corn exports in 2018, doubling their share in the last eight years. The companies are hoping that logistical investments will cut costs and remove the uncertainty of trying to move grains up north without a railroad. Every year, long lines of trucks form at certain towns in Mato Grosso and Pará state because of BR-163’s poor condition.

USDA and Beef Industry Collaborating on Analysis of U.S. Cattle Production: This is a full life-cycle study to help inform strategies for reducing its environmental footprint. The first part of the study found that the sector accounted for 3.3% of all U.S. emissions. The second set of data, expected to be made public within six months, will determine the environmental impact of the rest of the beef supply chain, such as processing, consumption and waste.

President Trump’s proposed budget would reduce the average premium subsidy for crop insurance to 48% from 62% and limit subsidies to producers that posted an adjusted gross income of half-a-million dollars or less. The proposal also requests tightening commodity payment limits, including eliminating a payment limit for peanut producers and limiting eligibility for commodity subsidies to one manager per farm. Like we reported yesterday, the President’s budget is expected to be rejected by Congress, where Democrats control the House. While this blueprint won’t become law, it will shape the budgetary battle among ag policymakers in the months ahead. (Source: Reuters)


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