News

Morning Commentary

May corn down ¼ at $3.79

May beans up ½ at $8.99

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil down $.53 at $58.09

Good morning,

Corn bulls are talking about extremely wet field conditions across many important parts of the U.S. corn belt. Bears are talking about much stronger production out of South America compared to last year, trade talks with the Chinese hitting further delays, and some ongoing uncertainty about growth in U.S. demand. Weekly export sales reported yesterday were weaker than expected for old-crop. Current export commitments are lagging where they need to be, making some traders think the USDA could deliver an additional cut to U.S. exports in an upcoming report. There’s also more talks and headlines circulating that the new corn based ethanol plants now operating in Brazil could create more U.S. export competition. Keep in mind, weekly U.S. ethanol data recently released showed another setback in production, down by another -7 million barrels on the week. Which overall is down about -2% compared to this week last year. The good news is, weekly ethanol stocks are down by about -2% compared to this time last year. Bottom-line, we need to see strong corn exports and an increase in ethanol exports.

Soybean bulls are pointing to strong weekly export sales. Bears are saying those sales were well advertised and are offering nothing new. Bears are also seeing a strong enough South American crop that it has the potential to supply a large chunk of Chinese demand. The market continues to be deeply concerned about Chinese trade negotiations. It sounds like negotiations have hit a few snags as President Trumps meeting with Xi has been pushed back from late-March to perhaps late-April or even May. It sounds like there are more details to be worked out before the two leading nations finalize a deal. Don’t forget, NOPA will be out today with their most recent crush data. Most inside the trade are thinking we crushed just over 158.7 million bushels, If realized, it would be the largest February crush on record, which would confirm why the USDA raised their crush estimate last week to a fresh all-time high.

Investigators discovered an outbreak of Salmonella Schwarzengrund, that sickened five people from two states, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service. I’m told Wisconsin officials took three samples of Butterball ground turkey from a home where four of the patients live. The products include several Butterball-branded ground turkey packages, as well as white-labeled store brands for Kroger and Food Lion. They were sold nationwide. (Source: Fortune)

 

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