Morning Commentary

May corn up ¼ at $3.785

May beans up 2 ¼ at $9.06

The DOW is down

USD is weaker

Crude oil down $.30 at $58.74

Good morning,

Corn bulls will be trying to keep the upside momentum moving higher. The market is coming off a fresh three-week high and bulls believe they finally have some headlines to keep prices moving higher. The USDA confirmed that China has stepped in as a sizable buyer of U.S. corn with a purchase of approximately 300,000 metric tons, the most in over 5-years. Also adding a bullish tailwind is the continued talk of extreme moisture and flooding in many important U.S. growing regions. This is finally starting to change the markets opinion about U.S. corn acres in 2019.

Soybean bulls are hoping to recover some of last weeks losses. The heavy rains and weather complications in the U.S. are starting to bring about more about talk of increased acres in 2019. The USDA’s early guess was for 85 million acres. I don’t know if U.S. soybean acres will be above 88 million, like last year, which was 89.2 million, but I can certainly argue they will be north of 85 million. With U.S. ending stocks already massively burdensome at 900 million bushels, planted soybean acres above 87 million could arguable keep a solid lid on the upside. Outside of U.S. weather headlines, the trade remains overly obsessed with Chinese trade talk.

FEMA has announced that federal disaster assistance has been made available to the state of Nebraska to supplement state and local recovery efforts in the areas affected by severe winter storm, straight-line winds and flooding beginning March 9, 2019 and continuing. Assistance can include grants for temporary housing and home repairs, low-cost loans to cover uninsured property losses, and other programs to help individuals and business owners recover from the effects of the disaster.(Source: FEMA)

Over the weekend, President Trump approved a disaster declaration for 61 of Iowa’s 99 counties. I’m told individuals and businesses in Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona, and Woodbury counties can apply for temporary housing and home repairs, low-cost loans to cover uninsured property losses, and other programs. Earlier in the week, President Trump made the same declaration for Nebraska.

We know President Trump has been focused on reducing the trade deficit between the U.S. and China. To that end, he is pushing negotiators to get China to agree to purchase more. China has offered to purchase up to $1.2 trillion in U.S. energy, agriculture and aircraft products over a period of six years. Insiders are saying President Trump wants a number “double or triple” China’s initial proposal in light of recent data that revealed the U.S.-China trade gap was widening. (Source: CNBC)


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