Morning Commentary

May corn down ¾ at $3.79

May beans down 3 ½ at $9.03

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $1.03 at $59.85

Good morning,

Corn bulls continue to talk about U.S. weather and hopes of additional Chinese buying. There’s continued talks that the Red River Basin will be battling extremely high flood waters in the weeks ahead as the snowmelt will create additional complications. Bears are pointing to an improved forecast for the Delta region and less overall rainfall for several key growing regions across the Midwest. Nobody is signaling an all-clear, but it feels like the weather has stabilized to some degree and the market is comfortable, at least for now, in seeing how things play out over the next few weeks. Weekly export inspections were considered strong and at the high end of expectations.

Soybean prices remain in a fairly narrow range. Since late-February the MAY19 contract has essentially traded between $8.90 and $9.20 per bushel. During the same time period, the new-crop NOV19 contract has essentially been trading between $9.25 and $9.50 per bushels. there’s very little new to discuss. The harvest in Brazil looks to be about 70% complete and still running ahead of schedule. Most sources inside the trade are thinking Brazil’s crop is going to come in around 115 MMTs, plus or minus 1 MMTs either side of that number. The USDA is currently estimating the Brazilian crop at 116.5 MMTs, which might eventually get trimmed just a bit. The good news is, the estimate is down substantially from the earlier forecast of 122.0 MMTs and down from last years harvest of 120.8 MMTs. The Argentine crop is currently estimated at 55.0 MMTs which is up substantially from last years harvest of 37.8 MMTs.

Reports circulating inside the trade show that China plans to import record amounts of U.S. pork as part of an overall trade package with the U.S., some insiders are saying Chinese purchases of U.S. pork could be up to +300,000 MTs in 2019. (Source: Bloomberg)

Earlier this month, it was reported that U.S. border agents had seized 1 million pounds of pork in attempt to keep out African swine fever. However, that has been clarified to food products as the containers seized also had noodles and tea bags that were used to facilitate the unlawful import of pork products. The importers may be facing charges for this attempt to smuggle illegal food products into the country. U.S. officials determined the seized products could contain African swine fever because China has the disease according to Customs and Border Protection and the USDA. (Source: Reuters)


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