Morning Commentary

July corn up ¼ at $3.9475

July beans down 8 at $8.205

The DOW is down

USD is stronger

Crude oil down $1.49 at $59.93

Good morning,

Van Trump says “Corn traders continue to debate the number of planted acres and overall crop condition. I personally argue, there will be a lot more “preventive plant” acres and acres that need to be “re-planted” than the market is currently anticipating. Unfortunately, we might not know the real acreage numbers until much later in the season. As for overall crop conditions, most sources think the USDA is still two or three weeks away from releasing weekly estimates since so little of the crop is actually emerged. In other words the trade is going to be left guessing on both acres and overall crop condition for at least a few more weeks. I continue to believe planted acres are going to be sub-88 million. I will also argue a sub-170 yield, perhaps even a sub-168 yield with so many acres going in the ground decidedly late in the campaign.”

Soybean traders aren’t sure what to think as many stories circulate regarding both weather and Washington. Rumors and hearsay regarding a second round of trade subsidies has many in the market debating the next move. Will U.S. and Chinese negotiators begin to bridge the gap? Will the second round of subsidy payments to U.S. producers be higher than the first, will it be tied to APH, will it impact planted acreage decisions? What about weather? Will weather delays impacting U.S. corn planting, ultimately push more acres to soybeans or will the weather worries continue, ultimately pushing more soybean acres out of the production equation?

A USDA Spokesperson released a statement yesterday saying the new farming support program will be forthcoming shortly, but we want to be clear that the program is being designed to avoid skewing planting decisions.Farmer should continue to make their planting and production decisions with the current market signals in mind, rather than some expectation of what a farming support program might or might not look like based on inaccurate media stories.” This looks like a response to a widely reported Bloomberg article the other day that speculated the support program could pay $2 per bushel to soybean farmers. Moral of the story is hold tight — details are forthcoming. (Source: USDA)

Ag Undersecretary Greg Ibach told a House Ag Subcommittee that scientists estimate it will take eight years to find an effective vaccine against African swine fever. Ibach also said USDA is working on an agreement with Canada for a framework for using trade controls and other processes to contain the spread of an animal disease if there’s an outbreak — particularly in the pork industry. (Source: Politico)


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