Morning Commentary

July corn down 5 ¼ at $4.095

July beans down 9 at $8.6075

The DOW is down

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.41 at $52.09

Good morning,

Corn  prices have faced some pressure the past few days, down -28 cents from the recent highs.  Over the past 5 years, the month of June has been the high of the year for marketing and we feel the high might have been put in last week.  Now we must wait for more data as the summer plays out or until the combines roll at harvest. The short term trend for July corn is neutral-positive. The market is in a correction phase. Closing below 406 alerts for a change in trend. Stable trade over 428 is needed to resume advances.

Soybean  traders continue to debate a wave of moving parts. Bears argue that soybean acres will be more heavily planted as unplanted corn acres are switched at the last moment. Bears also see an ongoing trade dispute with the worlds #1 buyer of soybeans, and continued complications associated with African Swine Fever across most all of China. Bulls are pointing to historical flooding and rain delays in many important U.S. soybean growing regions. The short term trend for July beans is neutral-positive. Stable action over 893 signals a run to 920.75. Closing under 863.75 alerts for corrective action.

China’s National Grain and Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) expects soybean vessel arrivals in May to reach 7.2 million mt this year. China’s soybean purchasing for June is now 78% complete and coverage for July is about 51% finished, according to data from Chinese soybean broker Overseas China Investment.

IEG Vantage, formally known as Informa, lowered their projected corn acres estimate to 84.9 million, with a yield of 174.0 bushels per acre and production at 13.6 billion bushels vs. the previous USDA production forecast of +15.0 billion bushels. They are projecting 85 million acres soy soybeans  will be planted which is up about +420,000-acres from the USDA’s March projection. 


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