News

Morning Commentary

July corn down ¾ at $4.4925

July beans down 5 at $9.105

The DOW is down

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.15 at $57.22

Good morning,

Corn traders continue to have more questions than answers. Nobody in the market can say with any certainty the specifics regarding planted acres, yield, re-plants, preventive plant, and weather moving forward. The average national yield estimate is also a massive wild-card, which seems to be running anywhere between 135 and 165 bushels per acre. Again, nobody knows for certain as weather during the month of July and into early-August will be the key to determining final yield. Don’t forget, at the end of next week the USDA will release its Acreage Report. Since the surveys where done back in mid-May and early-June, the market might see this data as a view out of the rearview mirror. The trade will also be digesting the USDA’s latest Quarterly Grain Stocks Report.

Soybean traders continue to debate weather and total acres.  The trade has added +$1.00 in risk-premium from the recent lows, and this might be enough until more is known. Both the bulls and the bears have some fairly compelling arguments right now, meaning we might have reached the next battleground area inside this market.

USDA’s Risk Management Agency will permit growers who plant cover crops on prevented planting acres to access that forage two months earlier than previously allowed. I’m told that the agency cited unforeseen weather challenges and is making the one-year adjustment to help farmers who have been adversely impacted by the excessive rains this spring.

Laos has reported its first cases of African swine fever (ASF), confirming outbreaks in the southern province of Saravane, according to the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health. From what I understand, the country reported seven outbreaks of ASF in villages across Saravane, which led to the deaths of 973 animals.

 

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