Morning Commentary

Sept corn down 3 ¾ at $4.4925

Aug beans down 4 at $9.0475

The DOW is up

USD is stronger

Crude oil up $1.16 at $58.99

Good morning,

Corn  bulls have been finding it more difficult to hold upside momentum. Keep in mind however, only six full trading sessions have elapsed since we posted the multi-year high back on June 17th. Prices have drifted sideways to lower and are now trading about -20 cents off those previously mentioned highs. Some are saying the bulls simply needed to catch their breath. In the moment, I suspect many bulls stopped and looked around, recognizing they had added over +$1.00 in premium from the mid-May lows.

Soybean  traders are considering a slightly drier and warmer forecast which could mean a few more bean acres going in the ground. Bears continue to point towards burdensome supply. The USDA will release their June 1st Quarterly Stock estimate on Friday, most everyone in the trade is looking for a substantial jump in production. The other concern for the bulls are the recent negative headlines now circulating around the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Xi.

Data recently released showed China’s May soybean imports from Brazil dropped by -35% compared to last year. China purchased roughly 6.3 MMTs of soybeans from Brazil in May, down from 9.124 MMTs the previous year.

Earlier outbreaks of ASF in Vietnam have appeared mostly at small household farms, but have now started to occur at larger industrial operations, including Phu Son Farm in Dong Nai province near Ho Chi Minh City, according to reports. Governmental websites have posted, “This is a very worrying sign as these farms have tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of pigs each and therefore the damages would be significant.” Keep in mind, nationwide Vietnam has culled more than 2.8 million pigs in the outbreak, which is up from 2.5 million pigs a week ago. Roughly 10% of their hog population has been culled. 


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