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Morning Commentary

Sept corn down 1 ¼ at $4.444

Aug beans up 2 ¾ at $8.965

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.11 at $59.55

Good morning,

Corn  traders desperately want to know how many U.S. acres were planted in 2019? I suspect today’s estimate by the USDA will be seen as nothing more than a guess, as producer intentions were spoiled several times by extreme weather difficulties. Remember, we won’t start seeing the FSA acreage data trickle out until mid-August. At the same time, we have to keep mind several areas pushed back prevent-plant deadlines so data could be late and extremely sporadic in nature. We probably won’t see NASS start using the FSA acreage data in their estimates until October.

Soybean  traders are eager to see the USDA’s glimpse of planted acreage. I don’t think anybody in the trade is looking for the data to be complete or final in nature, but rather simply an early guess. Back in March the USDA offered up an estimate of 84.6 million planted soybean acres. Bears and bulls now seem split on if planted soybean acreage will be larger or smaller.

Inventory of all hogs and pigs in the U.S. was 75.5 million head, which is the highest since estimates began in 1964. I should mention, this was up 4% from June 1, 2018, and up 1% from March 1, 2019. I’m told expectations were centered around the 3% area. Also, breeding inventory, at 6.41 million head, was up 1% from last year and up 1% from the previous quarter, which is smaller than analysts had expected at 2.1%.

 

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