News

Morning Commentary

Sept corn down 3 ½ at $4.5075

Aug beans down 6 ¾ at $9.065

The DOW is up

USD is stronger

Crude oil up $.21 at $60.42

Good morning,

Corn  bulls continue to talk about U.S. production being well overstated. The corn market added +15 cents last week and might have its eye’s on the nearby contract highs posted back in mid-June. The high posted back on June 17th in the DEC19 contract was at $4.73 per bushel. In above average volume, preliminary open interest rose more than 20,000 lots.  The trade count had the fund buying 21,000 corn.  The short term trend for December corn is positive.  Stable action over 453 should prompt a run to that high of 473.   A close under 441.5 signals renewed weakness.  10,000 less long than indicated by the trade count, the CFTC said the fund was long 130,000 corn as of July 9th.  They’re now thought to be long 177,000 lots. 

Soybean  traders continue to closely monitoring weather and Washington. The soybean market gained +35 cents last week. Bulls are trying to find ways to add to the momentum. In average volume, preliminary open interest rose 5,400 lots.  The trade count had the fund buying 8,500 beans.  The short term trend for November beans is neutral-positive.  Stable action over 925.75 should prompt a run to the 950 area.  Closing under 906.25 signals renewed weakness.  8,000 lots shorter than indicated by the trade count, the CFTC said the fund was short 62,000 beans as of July 9th.  They’re now thought to be short 41,000 lots.

China’s soybean imports fell 11.5% in June from May as the Sino-U.S. trade war and an outbreak of deadly African swine fever curb demand. I’m told China brought in 6.51 million tons of soybeans in June, which is down from 7.36 million tons in May, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Last June the country brought in 8.7 million tons.

China released 2Q figures overnight showing that its economy slowed to 6.2% growth — the weakest rate in at least 27 years. Many say the country’s trade war with the U.S. is starting to take a bigger toll. Interestingly, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said media reports on the U.S.-China trade talks are not reliable.​ He said, “My advice for investors is to be patient with the process and don’t believe anything you read in either the Chinese or the U.S. press about these negotiations unless it comes from the mouth of either the president or advisor Lighthizer.” 

 

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