Morning Commentary

Dec corn up 2 ¼ at $3.6075

Nov beans up 1 at $8.765

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.37 at $56.63

Good morning,

Corn  bulls still have very little to cheer about as U.S, weather remains cooperative enough to keep yield estimates respectable. FCStone’s latest forecast showed an average yield of 168.4 bushels per acre with total U.S. corn production at 13.809 billion bushels. Last month, they forecast an average yield of 167.4 bushels per acre and a total crop of 13.992 billion bushels. Allendale’s farmer-based survey is forecasting a yield at 167.71 bushels per acre and a total U.S. crop of 13.755 billion bushels. The USDA last estimated the average yield at 169.5 bushels per acre with total U.S. production forecast at 13.901 billion bushels.

Soybean  bulls continue to talk about a late-planted crop and overall lack of maturity. Yield is being heavily debated inside the trade. FC Stone is now estimating the yield at 48.3 bushels per acre and total production at 3.661 billion bushels. Allendale, another respected firm, released their farmer-based survey with a yield estimate of 46.1 bushels per acre and total U.S. production of 3.499 billion bushels.

Producer sentiment weakened sharply in August as the Ag Economy Barometer declined 29 points compared to a month earlier. Farmers were less optimistic about current economic conditions on their farms and, especially, about their expectations for future conditions. In particular, producers were much less inclined to think now is a good time to make capital investments on their farms and had a more negative outlook on short-run changes in farmland values than they had just one month earlier. However, producers long-run outlook for farmland values on the August survey was virtually unchanged from that recorded in July. Farmers in August were slightly more optimistic that the trade dispute with China will be resolved soon than in July, although a large majority of producers still think resolution of the dispute will not come quickly. The percentage of farmers who expect the trade dispute to be resolved in a way that favors U.S. agriculture has ranged from a low of 65 percent (May) to a high of 78 percent (July) with this month’s reading falling in the middle at 72 percent. Finally, over two-thirds of U.S. farmers said they expected USDA’s 2019 MFP payments to either completely or at least somewhat relieve their concerns regarding tariffs impact on farm income. Looking ahead to the next crop year, 58 percent of farmers in our survey expect to receive an MFP payment for their 2020 crop.


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