Morning Commentary

Dec corn down 1 ¼ at $3.5425

Nov beans down 2 ¼ at $8.555

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.52 at $57.04

Good morning,

Corn  bulls are hoping to have a better week than the past several. Prices in the DEC19 contract fell to a fresh new contract low at $3.53 per bushel on Friday. We are now down over -$1.10 per bushel from the mid-June highs and hopefully close to finding a bottom. Bears are still thinking we could drift down to the $3.20 to $3.30 area before finding more stable footing. The trend for December corn is bearish. Rallies capped at 367.75 leaves the market positioned to trade 348.75. Stable trade over 379.75 is needed to provide fresh upside targets.

Soybean  prices continue to chop around as bulls believe some type of deal with the Chinese is closer than the market is giving credit. There’s been many reports and rumors circulating that Chinese leaders are willing to purchase U.S. agricultural products if U.S. leaders agree not to move forward with the next two rounds of scheduled tariffs. The trend for November beans is neutral-negative. A close below 852.5 signals a fall towards 840. Stable action above 879.25 is the minimum needed to provide fresh upside targets.

U.S. agricultural trade groups on Friday told the Trump administration a proposed biofuel reform package falls short of expectations, four sources familiar with discussions said, complicating plans the administration had for presenting the proposal to President Donald Trump. The draft plan under consideration would include a previously discussed increase of 500 million gallons for conventional biofuels, largely corn-based ethanol, as well as an additional 500 million gallons for advanced biofuels like biodiesel for 2020, sources said. It would also include an addition to the biodiesel mandate for 2021 of 250 million gallons. The plan already faced backlash during a conference call the USDA held early Friday with biofuels advocates to detail plans, sources said. The agricultural industry wants the administration to force larger refineries to make up for the exempted gallons through a process called “reallocation,” but it has not committed to that yet, the sources said. “Plants are closing now. Farmers are going bankrupt now. The biofuel industry made it clear that restoring the exempted gallons by 2020 is the only way to stop the bleeding,” said a biofuel source familiar with the call. “Anything short of that is going to face united opposition, which means the president won’t want to show his face in Iowa.” Source: Reuters)

Farmer’s Almanac says that this upcoming winter is “filled with so many ups and downs on the thermometer, it may remind you of a ‘Polar Coaster.'” The annual periodical, which has been publishing yearly weather forecasts since 1818, warned that the season will be “freezing, frigid, and frosty,” especially for those east of the Rockies.

Peter Geiger, the publication’s editor, warned that the season will be a “wild ride” full of unexpected changes in temperature and “some hefty snowfalls.” The biggest drop is forecast to take hold from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. The Northeast, including the densely populated corridor running from Washington to Boston, will experience colder-than-normal temperatures for much of the upcoming winter. Only the western third of the country will see near-normal winter temperatures. Farmer’s says the coldest outbreak of the season should arrive during the final week of January and last through the beginning of February, with temps in the Midwest seen dipping as low as -40 below zero!

The Midwest and Northeast can also look forward to above-average precipitation. They are calling for “copious amounts” of snow, rain, sleet, and ice from early to mid-January in the eastern third of the country. “And for those who live northeast of the Texas Panhandle to the western Great Lakes, watch out for what could prove to be a memorable storm producing hefty snows for the Great Plains during the third week of January,” the publication says. This system, says the Almanac, will cause temperatures to plummet and drag the coldest Arctic air across the rest of the country into the beginning of February.

Unfortunately, Farmer’s Almanac says a harsh winter will lead to a late spring. “Occasional wet snow and unseasonably chilly conditions will hang on for a ride that you may not be able to get off until April,” the outlook warns.

The Farmer’s Almanac is not to be confused with The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which has been around since 1792 and uses a similarly “top secret” methodology to predict the weather. The formula was created in the late 18th century by founder Robert B. Thomas who strongly believed magnetic storms on the surface of the sun governed weather here on earth. Thomas allegedly locked the formula in a box, where it remains to this day. Today’s Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasters say they use a more “scientifically enhanced” version of the formula and claim an 80% accuracy rate.

Interestingly, The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a similarly brutal winter season, predicting it “will be remembered for strong storms” featuring heavy rain, sleet, and “no fewer than seven big snowstorms from coast to coast.” They also forecast a late start to spring, saying, “This could feel like the never-ending winter, particularly in the Midwest and east to the Ohio Valley and Appalachians, where wintery weather will last well into March and even through the first days of spring.” (Sources: Farmer’s Almanac, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, CNN)


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