Morning Commentary

Dec corn up 4 at $3.7125

Nov beans up 1 ¾ at $8.9725

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.40 at $55.49

Good morning,

Corn  bulls see the USDA lower their production estimate by -102 million bushels from last month. Unfortunately, that’s still about -125 million bushels short of what the trade was thinking the USDA would cut. U.S. corn production is now forecast at 13.799 billion bushels vs. 13.901 billion last month. The USDA lowered their yield forecast from 169.5 down to 168.2 bushels per acre. The USDA also left the season-average corn price received by producers unchanged at $3.60 per bushel. The trend for December corn is neutral negative but Thursday’s bull reversal alerts for a change in trend. Rallies capped at 367.5 leaves the market positioned to trade 348.75. Stable trade over 379.75 is needed to provide fresh upside targets.

Soybean  bulls see a trifecta of good news… The USDA lowered ending stocks by -115 million bushels; rumors circulating that Chinese buyers stepped in and purchased at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans out of the Pacific Northwest; and talk from Washington that deputy-level meetings with the Chinese will happen next week. The USDA lowered their production estimate by -47 million bushels, with total U.S. production now forecast at 3.633 billion bushels vs. 3.680 billion last month. The USDA also lowered their yield estimate from 48.5 down to 47.9 bushels per acre. Soybean crush and exports for new-crop were left unchanged. The trend for November beans is positive. Stable action over 879.25 should prompt a run to 912.5. Consistent trade below 868 signal renewed weakness.

As Nebraska’s brand-new Costco chicken processing plant begins sending birds down the line in Fremont, residents are escalating their protest against the company by pushing for a statewide moratorium on new concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). A petition for the moratorium launched Tuesday, just before a contentious zoning board meeting in Saunders County, which is just south of Fremont, at which board members approved a 12-barn poultry operation that will grow chickens for Costco and be run by an out-of-state investor. The conflict has caught the attention of Gov. Pete Ricketts, who late Tuesday night released a press statement calling the moratorium supporters “radical anti-agriculture groups.” The push for a moratorium comes soon after a news report that 132 barns linked to the Costco plant have been proposed by a single out-of-state operator, which opponents say undermines Costco’s purported mission to use its poultry plant to bring jobs to Nebraskans. Jessica Kolterman, a spokeswoman for Lincoln Premium Poultry, a company formed to run Costco’s processing plant, says that local farm families have been engaged in partnership with the North Carolina-based company, Gallus Capital LLC, that is behind the 132 barns. “So regardless of their engagement in this project, local farm families are still benefiting from these contracts.”


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