Morning Commentary

Dec corn up 1 at $3.7575

Nov beans down 4 ½ at $8.8975

The DOW is down

USD is stronger

Crude oil down $1.02 at $56.27

Good morning,

Corn bulls are pointing to weather forecasters who are showing a cold-snap ahead and in the cards for several parts of the upper northwestern portion of the corn-belt, specifically up in the northwestern portion of the Plains in early-October. Keep in mind, this is the highest DEC19 corn has traded in several weeks.

Soybean bulls are pointing to rumors that China is waiving tariffs on 5 to 6 MMTs of U.S. soybeans, while at the same time fields in portions of South America look to remain extremely dry. Bears argue that the Chinese soybean purchase might simply be an offering of good faith as both sides prepare to meet for another round of negotiations in early-October. The entire market will be paying very close attention. There’s also ongoing questions and concerns surrounding “African Swine Fever” and just how many fewer bushels China will chew through the next several months?

China has given new waivers to several importers to buy U.S. soybeans exempt from retaliatory tariffs, in a goodwill gesture ahead of high-level trade talks next month, two sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. The waivers, offered in two batches, total around 5 million to 6 million metric tons, according to one of the sources. Firms granted the waivers include private, foreign and state firms Sinograin and COFCO, according to the sources. Some firms have already bought at least 30 cargoes, or approximately 1.8 million tonnes, of American soybeans this month, following the waiver offers, the sources said. The first batch of extra-tariff free import quota was released earlier this month and was followed by a big purchase of American soy. Privately run Chinese firms bought at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 12, ahead of deputy-level talks in Washington last week. Chinese firms bought more than 20 cargoes of the oilseed from the United States on Monday, after the government issued the second batch of waivers, the sources said. They also said there will be more Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans before high-level trade talks in early October. (Source: Reuters)

China is on a global meat-buying spree, pushing up beef, pork and poultry prices around the globe as the world’s most populous nation scrambles to fill a large void in its meat supply. With its domestic hog supply decimated by African swine fever, domestic pork prices have surged and China’s meat imports are swelling in response, straining global supplies and sending ripples across the global economy. American shoppers so far haven’t felt much price impact from China’s meat purchases, but that could soon change. December-dated U.S. lean hog futures have climbed 4.5% so far this month, rising after Chinese officials said the country could exempt U.S. pork and some other agricultural goods from punitive tariffs. Meat prices in other countries, however, have seen substantial gains: In Brazil, poultry shipments to China have jumped 31% from a year ago and retail prices for chicken breasts, thighs and legs have increased roughly 16%. Shoppers in Europe are on average paying 5% more for pork, because more domestically produced meat is being sent to China. Lamb prices in Australian grocery stores have jumped 14%, while ground beef on shelves in New Zealand now fetches record prices.(Wall Street Journal)


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