News

Morning Commentary

May corn down 2 at $3.7975

May beans down 5 ¾ at $8.9125

The DOW is down

USD is weaker

Crude oil down $2.07 at $43.83

Good morning,

Don’t forget about today’s customer marketing meeting in Woden.  Meeting begins at 10:30.

Corn traders are positioning themselves ahead of Tuesday’s scheduled USDA report. Traders are also more closely monitoring next week’s rains in Argentina that now become more important following the recent round of hot and dry weather. If the rains don’t show up early next week the trade might start adding in a bit more risk-premium based on yield drag in parts of Argentina. Traders are also monitoring the continued deterioration of the Argentine and Brazilian currency which continue to post new record lows. China remains a huge “wild-card”. Here at home, weekly exports were towards the lower end of the trades guesses but still +750K metric tons. Weather here in the U.S. is being digested as mostly cooperative as a mild winter starts to come to an end. The short term trend for May corn is neutral. Stable action outsider 373.75-386 will provide fresh trending targets.

Soybean bears point towards weaker than expected export sales and more talk that Chinese buyers might not jump more heavily into the U.S. market until late-spring or summer when we become more competitive vs. SAM suppliers. As I mentioned above, the Argentine peso and Brazilian real continue to post fresh all-time lows vs. the U.S. dollar. This is providing the SAM producer with incentive and creating a continued headwind for U.S. exporters and overall price. The trend for May beans is neutral. Stable action outside 890.75-910.75 will provide fresh trending targets.

Republicans are asking the Trump administration not to drastically scale back its use of biofuel blending exemptions for oil refiners, despite the EPA’s plans to back down on the program following a recent federal court order that struck down a trio of waivers and effectively tightened the requirements for refineries to get out of their blending obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard, ruling that only refineries that had maintained blending exemptions continuously since 2011 were eligible for an extension. In a letter to President Trump, sixteen members led by Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) said the EPA shouldn’t apply the January ruling nationwide, and the agency should seek a rehearing of the case. Top House Republicans including Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy are backing the effort, and GOP senators have also weighed in against the potential policy shift. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler has remained mum, promising only that official guidance is coming. “The decision has to be made by next week, so we will be announcing something shortly,” Wheeler said at a budget hearing on Wednesday. The EPA is said to be considering new measures to help oil refiners cope with the cost of complying with the Renewable Fuel Standard. (Source: Politico)

 

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