Morning Commentary

May corn down 1 ½ at $3.445

May beans up 6 at $8.875

The DOW is up

USD is stronger

Crude oil down $1.16 at $20.35

Good morning,

Corn bulls will continue to try and battle the fallout in ethanol. As the industry is being gutted overall corn demand is being heavily questioned. How much nearby demand will need to be slashed by ethanol? Will the Chinese be back in the U.S. market anytime soon? Will feed demand from the livestock sector help despite consumer demand pulling back? At the same time, bears are pointing to mostly cooperative weather in Brazil and what could easily be a record crop. The weather here in the U.S. at this point is being considered as mostly a non-event. The short-term trend for May corn is negative. Sustained action over 357 is needed to improve the outlook. Closing under 341.25 suggests a drop to new lows for the move.

Soybean bulls are pointing to more logistical concerns for South American suppliers. There’s talk that Argentine crush facilities are having a tough time sourcing beans around the Rosario area as transportation starts to be more heavily locked-down. There is also talk that trucking, transportation and labor complications in Brazil are pushing basis levels higher. Bulls are hoping these types of headlines ultimately mean China might start to come to the U.S. for more supply. Stay tuned? At the same time, we might get some bullish news from the USDA tomorrow when the update Quarterly Stocks. The trend for May beans is positive. A close over 891 reignites bull trending and a test of 915.25. A settlement below 864.25 suggests a deeper retrenchment.

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry has proposed to limit grain exports for three months, it said on Friday. The proposal to limit grain exports to 7 million metric tons for April-June was a response to the Russian government’s request last week to consider whether exports of any food should be limited because of the coronavirus pandemic. The size of the limit doesn’t have much bite, traders said, because 7 million metric tons is more or less the general expectation for Russia’s export volumes until the end of the 2019/20 season on June 30. But the move has raised expectations that further steps might follow, given Russia’s history of limiting grain exports in tough times. In fellow Black Sea exporter Ukraine, the economy ministry on Friday said it was monitoring wheat exports daily and would take measures if needed. Bakers and millers in the country had earlier asked for grain exports to be limited to prevent a surge in bread prices if the spread of the coronavirus accelerates. (Source: Reuters)

U.S. Hand-Sanitizer Sales were just below $200 million in 2019, a 4.5% decline from the previous year, according to Nielsen. The most recent data available shows U.S. hand-sanitizer sales were up more than 470% for the week ended March 7, compared with the year-earlier period.”


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