Morning Commentary

May corn down 1 ½ at $3.3025

May beans down ¼ at $8.6325

The DOW is down

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.09 at $22.85

Good morning,

Corn bulls are hoping prices can rebound from the recent multi-year lows. . Perhaps, last week’s price consolidation down near the contract lows will help to build a technical bottom. Keep in mind, the JUL20 contract traded in a range of fewer than 10 cents last week. Most technicians will tell you when price ranges start to narrow and consolidate we will soon breakout to a new range. In last week’s supply and demand report, the USDA raised its ending stocks estimate by +200 million bushels to 2.092 billion. The big adjustment was a massive -375 million bushel reduction in corn used for ethanol. Somewhat offsetting that move was a +150 million bushel jump in corn used for feed, a +20 million bushel jump in food, seed and industrial, and -5 million bushel reduction in corn imports. Globally, the USDA took corn ending stocks higher by +5.8 MMTs to 303.17 MMT but this is still lower than some of the global ending stock numbers we were chewing on last year. Today, traders are eager to see the USDA’s first weekly crop progress update.

Soybean bulls need to see some renewed strength in the meal market. Soybean meal prices have fallen apart since late-March, in fact, recently posting fresh contract lows in the JUL20 contract. The USDA on Thursday reduced its export forecast by -50 million bushels and the bears continue to doubt U.S. exports, thinking total exports will continue to deteriorate. On the flip side, the USDA bumped its domestic crush demand higher by +20 million bushels as U.S. DDGs production tumbles.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza has been detected in a commercial turkey flock in the southwest part of South Carolina. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) says the H7N3 strain was confirmed by the National Veterinary Services Laboratories in Ames, Iowa. According to APHIS, the virus mutated from a low pathogenic strain that was recently found in the area. It’s the first confirmed case of high path avian flu in a U.S. commercial poultry flock since 2017. (Source: Brownfield Ag)

China on Thursday raised estimates for its corn imports in 2019/20, on prospects that shipments of the grain from the United States will increase under the Phase 1 trade deal. China’s corn imports in 2019/20 were seen at 4 million metric tons, up 1 million from the forecast in the previous month, after Beijing exempted extra tariffs on a list of U.S. products, including corn and sorghum in March, the country’s agriculture ministry said. China also lowered its estimate for industrial consumption of corn in 2019/20 to 82.5 million metric tons, down 2 million from the previous month, as slumping oil prices and a slowing economy hit demand of the grain from the corn processing sector. Chinese buyers have booked more than 1 million metric tons of U.S. corn in the past month for delivery in both the 2019/20 and 2020/21 marketing years, according to the USDA. (Source: Reuters)

The meat market just missed another holiday: March Madness. The NCAA basketball tournament is the second of two big annual events for chicken wings. But with society in lock down because of the novel coronavirus and the NCAA tournament canceled, that’s left a whole bunch of wings lying around, and now they’ve flooded the market. Wings, the most expensive part of the bird, haven’t been this cheap since September 2011, according to U.S. Agriculture Department data. They sold for close to $2 per pound the weekend of the Super Bowl. Now, they sell for half of that. Poultry producers sold 1.24 million pounds of wings the week the tournament was supposed to start. Last week, they sold 433,000 pounds. (Source: The Washington Post)


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