Morning Commentary

July corn down 6 at $3.1975

July beans down 5 ½ at $8.3525

The DOW is down

USD is weaker

Crude oil down $.17 at $35.32

Good morning,

Corn bears are thinking the USDA will show a slight improvement in today’s weekly crop condition report, last week 70% of the U.S. crop was rated GD/EX. Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois reported the worst overall conditions, but still, +49% of their crops were rated GD/EX. As a total, only 5% of the U.S. crop is rated “Poor-to-Very Poor”. Bulls are thinking the USDA is over-estimating the U.S. corn crop, rather than the 97.0 million planted acres they currently have forecast it’s actually somewhere between 92 to 95 million planted corn acres, just depending on how many soybeans get planted and how much “preventive plant” is taken? Last year we planted 89.7 million corn acres and the year before that we planted 88.9 million. The trend for July corn is neutral. Stable action above 328.75 would support a rally to channel resistance around 340. A close under 317.25 signals a return to 309.

Soybean bulls are happy to see the “Phase 1” trade deal is still intact, but bears say U.S. and Chinese relations are worsening. Most on Wall Street viewed President Trump’s comments on China as less aggressive than expected so the trade deal is still in play. Here at home, many in the soybean market are thinking the USDA could show 80% of U.S. crop now planted. The question remains how many acres? The USDA is currently forecasting a jump in planted acres form 76.1 last year to 83.5 million this year. Many bears are thinking that number is too conservative, pointing to the fact the year before last we planted 89.2 million acres of soybeans. bulls are quick to remind the bears that year we only planted 88.9 million acres of corn vs. this year the USDA thinking we will plant 97.0 million acres of corn. Not only is the U.S. soybean crop getting planted at a very good pace, but most suspect to see 65% to 70% rated “Good-to-Excellent”. The trend for July beans is neutral. Closing outside 834.75-864.25 would provide fresh trending targets.

Some young and beginning farmers feel excluded from the Agriculture Department’s coronavirus assistance efforts, hamstrung by a complicated application process that does not accommodate small, diversified producers. Groups representing this demographic warn that an entire generation of farmers could go bankrupt this year, especially after their request for a portion of funds to be set aside for young and beginning producers has not been granted. Some producers argue the calculation used to determine direct payments is bound to mainly benefit large growers and shuts out many young and beginning farmers with direct sales or CSA business models. The payments are also on a per-crop basis, complicating how diversified farmers could tally losses. (Source: Politico)


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