Sept corn down 4 ½ at $3.42
Aug beans down 3 ¾ at $8.9475
The DOW is down
USD is stronger
Crude oil down $.23 at $40.40
-California has shut down all restaurants and bars.
-80% of companies have given no forward guidance.
-According to 239 doctors, CV is an airborne virus, especially dangerous in crowded indoor areas.
-Max global lockdown was achieved on April 6th when 76% of cities had congestion down 40% yoy, only 18% of cities have congestion down 40% now.
-Capital is now flowing in China’s direction after the large outflows in March, including dramatic foreign participation.
Both corn and beans are setting back this morning as the weather models show a wetter outlook over the next two weeks for the majority of the Midwest. New Crop corn was the theme yesterday as producers began to market bushels and hoping this will be the worst sale of the year. Roach also came out with a “Sell” signal.
In below average volume, open interest surged 11,000 lots on Monday. The trend for Nov beans is positive. Stable trade above 889 should fuel a drive to 924.75. Closing under 891.25 alerts for a deeper pullback. In Monday’s COT report, funds were shown long 44,000 lots versus 18,000 the week prior. Funds were 19,000 lots longer than what was implied by the trade count. Gross length increased by 22,000 contracts June 24-30. The average settlement price of Nov beans during that time span is 868.5. Based on trade flow Wed-Mon, non-passive funds are thought to be long 60,000 beans on a futures and options basis.
The trend for Dec corn is positive. Stable action over 360.5 would support a move towards 380. Closing under 347.25 rekindles bear trending. In Monday’s COT report, funds were shown short 243,000 lots versus 321,000 the week prior. The funds covered upwards of 56,000 gross shorts and came in 43,000 contracts less short than what was implied by the trade count. Based on trade flow Wed-Mon, non-passive funds are thought to be short 215,000 corn on a futures and options basis.