Morning Commentary

Sept corn down ¾ at $3.1925

Nov beans down 2 ½ at $8.85

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.31 at $41.35

Good morning,

Corn traders continue to debate the bearish argument of increasing U.S. yield vs. the bullish argument of improved Chinese buying and a much better macro landscape for commodities. Bears are quick to point the USDA’s weekly crop condition report showing 72% of the U.S. crop now rated GD/EX and more inside the trade talking +180 final yield. Bulls point back to 2018, during this very same week-30, the USDA had the crop rated 72% GD/EX. At that time, they had the 2018 yield estimated at 178.4 bushels per acre, but the final yield actually ended down at 176.6 bushels per acre. In 2016 the U.S crop was rated 76% GD/EX in week 30, and again the final yield ticked lower from 175.1 down to 174.6 bushels per acre. Bottom line as long as the market is focused on U.S. weather and a very possible record yield it will be tough to rally price.

Soybean bears are pointing to the first day in a couple of weeks that we haven’t seen the Chinese in buying U.S. beans. Why this is interesting is because soybean prices were under pressure and most would think that would entice the Chinese buyers. Bears believe this is because China has reached its quota objective for the time being and may trim back their U.S. purchases as we move inside 100-days til the U.S. presidential election. Bears say China wants to look cooperative but not do anything extra that might help President Trump with the rural vote.

China’s COFCO has temporarily suspended operations at its Timbues grains plant in Argentina after 12 employees tested positive for COVID-19, a company spokesman told Reuters on Tuesday. The outage at the plant started on Monday and was expected to last about one week, said Allan Virtanen, global communications director at COFCO International. The plant employees 350 workers and has an annual grains and oilseeds processing capacity of 6.5 million metric tons. Cases have also allegedly been detected at a Bunge plant, according to Gustavo Idigoras, head of the CIARA-CEC grains exporting and crushing chamber. The plants are located in Argentina’s main export hub of Rosario, along the Parana River in Santa Fe province. (Source: Reuters)

The United Food and Commercial Workers Union (UFCW) filed a lawsuit on Tuesday seeking to force the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to end a program allowing poultry plants to speed up production lines, saying it endangers workers. The union and five local affiliates that represent 35,000 poultry workers in six states said in a complaint in Washington D.C. federal court that the USDA’s Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) failed to follow the proper administrative procedures and ignored worker safety when it adopted a 2018 waiver program that allows for testing “new procedures.”


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