Morning Commentary

Sept corn up ½ at $3.715

Nov beans up 9 at $9.025

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.68 at $69.69

Good morning,

Corn prices are slightly higher this morning as traders continue to debate U.S. yields. Bears are saying recent rains have helped ease some of the stress in areas that have been battling the elements. Bulls are saying the rains have missed several important areas and the extreme heat is now clearly causing some complication. There’s also talk that crops might underperform a bit as many have been hurried through the finishing cycle, ultimately pushing the crop to early maturity. The USDA decided to pull their weekly ratings back a bit with total conditions falling from 72% rated “Good-to-Excellent” down to 71%. States deteriorating the most were: Pennsylvania -10%; Missouri -7%; North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas -5%; Iowa and Tennessee -3%; Kentucky and Minnesota -2%; Nebraska -1%. Wisconsin was left “unchanged”. Illinois, Kansas and Michigan up +1%; Indiana +2%; Ohio and North Carolina +5%; Colorado +9%. U.S. corn in the “dough” stage is reported at 57% vs. the 5-year average of 37%. Corn in the “dented” stage was reported at 12% vs. the 5-year average of 6%. The short term trend for December corn is positive.  The target is 399.  A close under 373.75 would resume defensive trade.  Short December corn, system traders are likely to find buy stops around 388.5

Soybean bulls are happy to see the USDA finally reducing their crop-condition estimate. Prices were up double-digits in the overnight, but continue to trade around the $9.00 level. Weekly ratings fell from 70% rated “Good-to-Excellent” last week down to 67% this week. States deteriorating the most are: North Dakota -9%; North Carolina -8%; Missouri -6%; Kentucky and Mississippi -5%; South Dakota -4%; Iowa and Tennessee -3%; Minnesota and Nebraska -1%; Illinois, Kansas and Louisiana “unchanged”; Indiana and Wisconsin +1%; Arkansas +2%; Michigan +3%; Ohio +7%. Soybeans “blooming” are reported at 92% vs. the 5-year average of 86%. Soybeans “setting pods” were reported at 75% vs. the 5-year average of 58%. The short term technical trend for November beans is positive.  Consecutive closes above 915.75 would signal a run to 943, perhaps 971.  Closing under 885.5 undermines recent bull action.  Short November beans, system traders will find buy stops above 908. 

A record setting 272.6 million pounds of beef was exported from the U.S. in June. The number fell just short of an all-time high for any month of 272.8 million pounds in May.  Beef exports were up almost 37 million pounds from year-earlier levels. Essentially, the first half of the year was up close to 15% compared to last year. Pork exports totaled 454.3 million pounds in June, which was the second highest on record for the month behind 2008’s 461.3 million pounds and up 6.0 million pounds from last year.

China can cut its soybean imports by 10 million mt in 2018 by expanding the use of low-protein feed, increasing imports of soymeal substitutes and by upping its domestic soybean production, researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences said Monday. The research showed that lowering the share of protein in animal feed, providing four specific amino acids were added to the feed, would not have a significant effect on the output or quality of chicken and pork. (Source: Agricensus)

Supply chain provider Savage Companies and grain and milling firm Bartlett and Company have completed the merger of their businesses to form a combined entity, Savage Enterprises. The merger aligns two of the largest privately-held, family-owned companies in North American agricultural and energy supply chain markets, each with decades of experience providing transportation, logistics and materials management services. The combined businesses have nearly 4,800 Team Members with about 280 locations across the United States, Mexico, Canada and Saudi Arabia. (Source: FeedandGrain)


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