Morning Commentary

Sept corn up ¾ at $3.72

Nov beans down ¼ at $9.1025

The DOW is up

USD is stronger

Crude oil up $.17 at $67.11

Good morning,

Van Trump says “Corn price have moved little to any as of late. In fact, since the last day of July the market has essentially traded sideways between $3.80 and $3.90 per bushel. The USDA’s August report is scheduled for release tomorrow at 11:00 AM CST. As I’ve been saying, it has the potential to inject a “wild-card” into the game. There’s always uncertainty about yield when switching from trend line analysis to survey based analysis. But we also have a ton of moving parts in regard to export forecasting. Hence some potentially unique variables will be in play, which could make the game of forecasting even harder than it normally is. Most seem to believe a higher yield estimate (perhaps raised +20 to +50 million bushels) will be partially offset by stronger demand. There’s also some talk that new-crop ethanol demand could also be raised +5 to +25 million bushels. Bears believe the U.S. yield is significantly larger than the USDA’s current 174 bushel per acre estimate. They are also quick to point out that the past few years the USDA has grossly underestimated the crop and has been forced to move production estimates higher into year end.”

Soybean bulls are talking about a bit more fear circulating inside China in regard to lack of available supply in the months ahead. There seems to be more talk in the headlines of Chinese imports lagging and Brazil not having near enough supply come late-Sept-Oct-Nov. There’s also talk of Argentine crushers needing to source more supply to help offset their domestic lack of production and heavier than expected Chinese buying. The uncertainty of the USDA report is also looming. Not only how the USDA will move in regard to yield, but also how they are playing demand for U.S. crush, exports and current Chinese trade relations.

Many cattle graziers across eastern Australia are being forced to sell livestock they can no long feed as drought has left pastures bare. Australian farmers slaughtered 659,00 head of cattle in June, the highest monthly figure in three years. The U.S. is absorbing the extra supply for , but American cold storage facilities have already amassed more than 2.5 billion pounds of excess beef, pork and other meats. Australia — the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter — is also expected to see production of its staple wheat grain fall to a decade low as dry condition stymie yields. (Source: Reuters)

Chinese imports of soybeans fell 8% month-on-month to 8 million mt in July, according to figures from the General Administration of Customs of China, as domestic stocks remain at high levels amid sluggish demand for animal feed. The figures are down on the 8.7 million mt imported in June 2018 and 20% down on the 10.08 million mt brought in through ports in July 2017, and come as both soybean and soymeal stocks at Chinese ports remain near record highs. (Source: Agricensus)


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