Morning Commentary

Sept corn down 5 ¼ at $3.525

Nov beans down 9 ¼ at $8.525

The DOW is down

USD is stronger

Crude oil down $.28 at $67.35

Good morning,

Corn traders are adjusting to the USDA’s most recent numbers. The bulls didn’t seem that surprised by the USDA going with such a high population count, but did seem a bit caught off guard by such a high ear weight, third highest in more than a decade. This allowed the USDA to come in with a higher yield than most were anticipating, +4.4 bushels per acre higher than last month and at a fresh new record 178.4 bushels per acre. The report showed that Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio, North Dakota, and South Dakota are going to harvest better yields than last year. The yield for Iowa is forecast to be the same as last year.

Soybean bears are back up to bat as the USDA delivers a heavy blow to the bulls. U.S. production is now forecast at a new all-time record of 4.586 billion bushels, up +276 million on a higher yield. The first survey-based soybean yield is forecasting a 51.6 bushels per acre average, which is +3.1 bushels above last month and +2.5 bushels above last year. New-crop ending stocks are now projected at a whopping 785 million bushels, up +205 million bushels from last month. Global stocks are also raised aggressively higher. Bulls are arguing the U.S. ending stocks are currently a bit skewed as the USDA is ultimately underestimating total exports.

A ship carrying 70,000 tonnes of soybeans from the United States docked in the port of Dalian on Saturday, more than a month after it arrived off China’s coast just as hefty tariffs were imposed on U.S. goods, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon shipping data. Peak Pegasus has been sitting off the coast since July 6 when it arrived with about $20 million worth of soybeans according to Rabobank analysts. Reportedly, Louis Dreyfus is paying about $12,500 a day to keep Pegasus afloat in an attempt to wait out the trade war. I’m told grain stockpiler Sinograin made the purchase. (Source: Reuters)

A blockchain-based IBM partnership with global shipping colossus Maersk has now expanded to include 94 partners, Big Blue said Thursday. That includes shippers, customs houses, ports and others that have to wrangle paperwork as containers full of goods move around the world. The result is shipping times that dropped a whopping 40 percent on average, according to Marie Wieck, who leads IBM’s 1,600-employee blockchain work. Ultimately, like we always say, technology is deflationary and will lower prices, as I suspect it will do for anyone purchasing items being shipped from overseas. Get ready as blockchain will be at the farm door sooner than later.

Jurors in California on Friday ruled in favor of the plaintiff against Monsanto in the world’s first ever Round Up cancer case. The company was ordered to pay a total of $289 million in damages. Monsanto will appeal the verdict but still has hundreds of similar cases across the U.S.


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