Morning Commentary

Sept corn up ¼ at $3.47

Nov beans down 2 at $8.4625

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.16 at $69.03

Good morning

Corn bulls are trying to argue poorer crop-conditions in some key growing regions. Despite the fact the USDA elected to leave weekly crop-conditions mostly “unchanged” at 68% “Good-to-Excellent” there are some notable deteriorations. Conditions in North Dakota fell by another -6% from 70% to 64%. This is the second week in a row for North Dakota to be downgraded aggressively, last week it was dropped by –9%. Pennsylvania was reported down -4% from 74% to 70%; Kentucky down -3% from 74% to 71%; Michigan down -2% from 51% to 49% and Wisconsin down-2% from 75% to 73%; South Dakota down -1% from 65% to 64%; Indiana down -1% from 71% to 70%; Nebraska down -1% 84% to 83%. States that showed improvements were Colorado +9%; Tennessee +5%; Ohio +2%; Minnesota +1%. States where conditions were left “unchanged” included Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Texas. The USDA also continues to show the crop running well ahead of schedule with 92% in the “dough stage” vs. the 5-year average of 84%. They also show 61% of the corn is now “dented” vs. the 5-year average of 42%

Soybean bears seem to remain in control as U.S. weather appears cooperative and Chinese demand remains in question. There’s talk inside the trade of more recent interest in bear spreading this market, especially as more crop scouts talk about increasing pod counts and perhaps another new all-time record yield. There’s also the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand? Not only is there little talk of a trade resolution between the U.S. and the Chinese, but now there’s some question about nearby Chinese meal demand in light of the African Swine Flu hitting a few hog operations. The number of actual pigs impacted isn’t the problem or fear, it’s how those surrounding the farms are reacting to the news and how they are liquidating herds ahead of a possible government quarantine or forced culling

The U.S. and Mexico struck a trade deal on Monday that paved the way to replace NAFTA. The new deal will be called The United States-Mexico Trade Agreement and Trump was quick to mention the deal will help farmers and manufacturers. The new deal will last 16 years and will be reviewed every six years, according to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Lighthizer also said the plan will not cap imports of light vehicles from Mexico, but keeps the steel and aluminum tariffs that are already in place. Keep in mind the deal must also be approved by Congress.

The initial MFP payment will be calculated by multiplying 50 percent of the producer’s total 2018 actual production by the applicable MFP rate. If CCC announces a second MFP payment period, the remaining 50 percent of the producer’s total 2018 actual production will be subject to the second MFP payment rate. MFP payments are capped per person or legal entity at a combined $125,000. Also to eligibility is based on Adjusted Gross Income under $900,000 and in conservation compliance. Payments to wheat farmers will be 14 cents per bushel; Sorghum will be set at 86 cents per bushel; Soybeans at $1.65 per bushel; Corn at 1 cent per bushel; Cotton at 6 cents per pound. Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue says the farm aid program will be implemented on September 4. Interested producers can apply after harvest is 100% complete and they can report their total 2018 production. Producers will also be able to submit their MFP applications in person, by email, fax, or by mail. MFP applications will also be available online at (Source: USDA)

Your browser is out-of-date!

Update your browser to view this website correctly. Update my browser now