Morning Commentary

Sept corn up 2 ¼ at $3.4325

Nov beans up 5 at $8.3825

The DOW is up

USD is stronger

Crude oil up $.44 at $68.97

Good morning,

Corn bulls are talking about perhaps too much rain in the forecast for some northern areas, which could obviously slow harvest if flooding becomes an issue. . It feels like the recent crop tours have somewhat spooked the bulls and are allowing more talk of a national U.S. yield pushing nearer 180 bushels per acre. From a technical perspective, prices in the DEC18 contract have fallen by more than -30 cents from the highs posted just three weeks ago. Interestingly, the high was posted in late-May at $4.29^4, then less than 8 weeks later the contract posted it’s low at $3.50^2.

Soybean bears continue to talk about the U.S. crop getting larger and not smaller. At the same time this is invoking talk that an already massive 785 bushel ending stock estimate is going to get larger, perhaps pushing to between 850 to 950 million bushels. Obviously, the thoughts of a record U.S. crop, yield pushing north of 52 bushels per acre, along with no real signs of amicable trade negotiations with the Chinese, is muting most all rallies. The technical trend for Nov beans is bearish.  An inability to post reversal action leaves the market is poised to test the swing low at 826.25.  At minimum, a pop over 860.75 is needed to improve the outlook.  Short November beans, system traders will find buy stops around 853.5Overnight volume was quite impressive.  Looks like some are trying to defend the lower boundary of a long term bear channel (835.5).    

More than 24,000 pigs have been culled in four provinces since the first reported incidence as Chinese officials scramble to contain African swine fever outbreak. In a statement the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization said the cases had been detected in areas more than 600 miles apart, meaning the disease could cross national borders. Understand, African swine is not harmful to humans but almost always end in death within a few days for domesticated pigs. There is no antidote or vaccine, and the only known method to prevent the disease form spreading is a mass cull of the invected livestock. (Source: UN FAO)


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