May corn 0 at 5.7725
May beans -8 at 13.95
The DOW is Down
USD is Down
Crude oil +1.23 at 60.55
Overnight grain markets traded weaker with the soy complex and wheat leading to the downside while corn is struggling to stay in positive territory heading into the biscuit break. Old and new crop bean futures have slipped to a two-week low under $14 again although the bull spreads are slightly firmer. The Goldman Roll is on day 3 of 5. Interior processor bean bids remain steady/firm, NOPA March crush data will be released on Thursday where a return to record or near record monthly crush is anticipated following February data that dropped off with weather likely being a factor.
In the product trade, meal and oil are both weaker but meal is gaining in the oil share spread. Canola is trading mixed but Malaysian palm oil closed -3% and is dragging on soybean oil early on.
News from over the weekend is limited and weather is mostly benign. Crop progress this afternoon will update corn planting and corn/wheat conditions, beans will be counted starting next week. US row crop planting pace will accelerate as ground temps begin to warm up. The largest crop concern will continue to be over Brazil’s safrinha corn production where dryness is a concern although it is still early and forecasts hint at better moisture opportunities this coming weekend and through the end of the month.
Overnight, the corn market got off to a hot start, nearly trading ten cents higher at one point, before angling back toward unchanged over the balance of the night. May Corn would finish effectively unchanged by the morning pause, closing the initial gap higher; other months posted a penny higher close. There is not much news around early; outside markets are mixed, leaning supportive (crude up, dollar down a little). We will get the second national crop progress report tonight. There was scattered reports of light fieldwork last week, though we suspect insurance restrictions and a cool/wet bias likely limited significant corn planting in all but the very southern reaches of U.S. growing areas. 6-10 & 8-14 day maps are cool and dry; mixed, but should allow for expanded progress soon. There are rains in the forecast for Brazil this weekend and into early next week, which may explain some of the overnight
volatility? Overall, aside from planting, the main story at present is likely the strength in many cash markets. Interesting to note that despite closing higher for nine consecutive weeks, cash ethanol profitability has actually narrowed in recent weeks, due to falling DDG (relative to corn) and rising corn basis. Despite plenty of rumors to the contrary, there has still been no 8 AM corn sales announcements. Today is Day 3 of the Goldman Roll, so look for more wild spread action and volume.
Darren, David, and Elizabeth