Morning Comments

Mar corn + ¼ at 5.3475

Mar beans +8 at 13.62

The DOW is UP

USD is Down

Crude oil -.17 at 58.51


Good morning,


Overnight grain markets continued lower but found a bid and have firmed back into the morning hours looking to stabilize the sharp post-USDA corrections.

CONAB was out this morning with bigger Brazilian crop projections including total corn production of 105.5 mmt, up from 102.3 mmt previously, and soybean production of 133.8 mmt, up from 133.7 mmt previously. The USDA left their estimates unchanged on Tuesday at 109 mmt and 133 mmt respectively.

Weekly export sales were solid but with the range of expectations for corn (1.561 mmt) and beans (984 tmt) while wheat came in better than expected (635 tmt). Old crop soybean export continue to be too strong with remaining supply nearly all spoken for. That demand will shut off as Brazil’s new crop becomes more readily available in the coming weeks but will leave the US sweeping bin bottoms and maxing out imports for the summer. Meal sales were strong (265) but within their range while oil sales stumbled in like Tom Brady after a boat cruise at -500 mt.

In China’s shopping cart this week, they were buyers of zero corn or wheat, 110 tmt of sorghum, 517 tmt of old crop beans (198 tmt moved from unknown, a cancellation of -10 tmt and 296 tmt were reported late), 66 tmt new crop beans, 55.8 trb cotton for this year and a cancellation of -8.8 trb of cotton for next year, 1.8 tmt of beef and 9.7 tmt of port including a cancellation of -1.2 tmt.

Outstanding old crop soybean sales stand at 9.723 mmt compared to 5.505 mmt this time last year. Of that total, China is earmarked for 2.314 mmt and unknown for 3.028 mmt. Accumulated exports market year to date have reached 49.740 mmt compared to 27.364 mmt this time last year. Combined soybean sales plus shipments total 59.463 mmt or 2.185 billion bushels representing 97.1% of the updated USDA projected 2.250 billion bushel export program for the year. This is up from 96.6% last week and the 5 year avg. of 78%.


Bunge Expects Tight Commodity Supplies in 2021: U.S. agricultural commodities trader Bunge Ltd posted stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday and said its full-year adjusted profit would top estimates due to strong demand and tight commodity supplies. The company said it expects full-year 2021 adjusted profit of at least $6 per share, higher then estimates of $5.53 per share, but down from the $8.30 per share it earned in 2020. Bunge Chief Executive Greg Heckman called the company’s 2020 performance “exceptional” and that momentum has carried into 2021. Tighter crop supplies and higher prices, however, clouded the forecast for late 2021. “These balance sheets are really tightened up in the last year, and they’re going to stay that way,” Heckman said during a call with analysts. “It would be hard to recreate for everything to happen the way it did in 2020. But I’ll tell you, we’re optimistic.” Net income attributable to Bunge stood at $551 million, or $3.74 per share, in the quarter ended Dec. 31, compared with a loss of $51 million, or 48 cents per a share, a year earlier. Revenue jumped nearly +17% to $12.61 billion.


CME Says Retail Traders Grew +50%: The number of retail traders using CME was up 50% last year, driven in part by the rollout of smaller contracts aimed at making futures and options trading more accessible to individual traders, the company said. The increase also came as younger investors entered the market, drawn by the ease of mobile trading apps and falling brokerage costs. “There’s no question about it that the proliferation of social media, the proliferation of access to marketplaces is allowing people to participate more and more,” CME Chief Executive Officer Terry Duffy said on a call with analysts. The futures exchange operator yesterday reported quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street expectations, but revenue declined as the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout hurt demand for some of its top products. CME’s net income for the quarter ended Dec. 31 fell to $424 million, or $1.18 per share, from $469.5 million, or $1.31 per share, a year earlier. Clearing and transaction fee revenue – the company’s biggest source of income – fell -6.4% to $843 million in the quarter as overall average daily volumes dropped for CME’s interest rate and energy futures amid renewed lockdowns in many parts of the world aimed at slowing the pandemic. Equities and agriculture futures products gained, helped by growing retail participation in Asia, Europe and North America, the company said. Total revenue at CME fell -3.5% from a year earlier to $1.1 billion.


Darren, David, and Elizabeth

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