Corn

Wednesday’s Recap
Wednesday’s Corn market was mixed with the March contract dropping 1’2 to 493’2. Overall the session saw 478,442 contracts done, with March volume coming in at 226,004. Across all maturities, open interest increased by 11,822 (0.59%) to 2,031,243. March dropped 13,360, or 2.04%, finishing at 640,775.

Technicals
March corn futures traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday, presenting some good shorter-term opportunities for traders. We feel that this environment will continue. If the market can chew through resistance from 499-502 1/4 that could spark a flurry of buying back towards the contract high from May, 508 1/4. On the flip side, a break and close below support from 477 3/4-479 3/4 could trigger some profit taking from Funds who have been accumulating a rather large net long position.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 499-502 1/4**, 508 1/4**
Pivot: 487-488
Support: 477 3/4-479 3/4***, 469 1/4-471 1/2***

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the March 500 calls with 10,426 changing hands and the May 500 puts with volume of 2,762. Options with the most open interest are the July 500 call with 41,168, and the March 440 put with 19,822.

Volatility Update
Corn implied volatility closed the day sharply down as CVL fell by 1.3 to end at 22.64. The 30-day historical volatility finished up by 0.0772% to a one month high of 19.88%. The CVL Skew ended slightly lower, down 0.062 to finish the session at 2.09.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 2.3.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Managed money is now approaching lofty territory holding 350,721 contracts between futures & options. Meanwhile, commercials expanded their net-short position to 324,689 contracts between futures & options, likely due to the swath of farmer selling over the course of the past three weeks. If long liquidation materializes, it will likely see a drop in prices fairly quickly before stabilizing.
 

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