WTI Crude Oil Futures (March) 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 72.32, up +1.32 [+1.86%]

WTI Crude Oil futures posted another strong rally yesterday, settling well above our rare four-star support level we had highlighted in the morning. 

A general risk on trade across global markets helped underpin Crude strength alongside some bullish headlines. Equities and precious metals moved sharply higher, while yields moved slightly higher alongside the Dollar. 

There were reports that Hamas would be delaying the return of a second round of hostages. The group has stated that Israel & Trump’s plan for Gaza violates the original terms of the ceasefire. Traders should watch for Middle Eastern tensions ramping up once again. 

Russian crude production for January came in lower than expected and once again below their OPEC+ quota. Markets are taking this as a sign that heightened U.S. sanctions are starting to bite.

Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have boosted their selling prices to Asia as Chinese buyers seek non-Russian crude sources. 

Morgan Stanley released a bullish note on Crude Oil yesterday. The core thesis is that the group will once again delay production hikes. This is a distinct possibility, and it is worth paying attention to. 

Later in the evening, Trump was asked if he had spoken to Chinese leader Xi. His response indicated that his administration had been in contact with the Chinese officials, and that their dialogue was largely cooperative. If this type of rhetoric starts gaining momentum, it should be bullish risk-assets.

Today, futures are higher by +1.01 [+1.40%] to 73.32

The macro environment is trading mixed this morning in an odd trade. U.S. bond yields are sharply higher while the Dollar is marginally weaker. Precious metals are sharply lower while Crude oil is sharply higher. Gold has been in a full, multi-year breakout and is a key asset to watch.

There is speculation that Russia may once again halt the exports of Gasoline and is another catalyst we’re keeping an eye on.

All catalysts are seemingly coming in bullish this week. 

Technical Analysis:

Yesterday, our key to the day was settling above our rare four-star support level of 71.25-71.63****. That was more than achieved, and today, March futures are already retesting our major three-star resistance level of 72.97-73.24***.

If March futures can settle above this level, it would be a fairly clean switch to bullish momentum. This may be wishful thinking, and a settlement above yesterday’s high of 72.54 will be our key to watch for the day. 

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of resistance is set at…

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