Soybean Opportunities
Soybean planting is at 76% as of May 25, up 10% over the previous week. Planting is well ahead of schedule, with the 10-year average for this time of year being 63%. The national crop was 50% emerged, ahead of the average at 40%.
On the May WASDE report, the USDA projected new crop domestic carryout to be 295 million bushels (mb), which is historically friendly. Looking at world carryout, the 2025/26 projection is 124 mb, up from 115 mb in 2023/24. World carryout, excluding China, during the same time period is up about 8 mb, meaning there’s plenty of soybeans in the world. Brazilian agribusiness consultancy Datagro raised its 2024/25 soybean production estimate to 172 million metric tons, up from 171.2.
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Planted acres for new crop soybeans are lower than in previous years, with many farmers switching acreage to corn this year. The USDA has domestic planting at 3 million acres less than last year. Weather is the primary pricing influence on the market, in my opinion, heading into the summer. Longer term weather forecasts are still a major unknown, especially for the key yield development period in July through September. If a weather premium is built in this summer January soybeans could rally to 1210.
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Soybean Trading Opportunities
Sell the January 2026 Soybean 13.00/11.40 put spread for $1.40 or $7k collection minus trade costs and fees. The maximum risk is 20 cents or $1k plus trade costs and fees. If my target is hit, I would aim to buy back the put spread for 60 cents, which would collect 80 cents or $4k minus trade costs and fees. Margin = $507.00
Managed Money is record short. Sell the March 2026 Soybean Meal 4.10/3.50 put spread for 52 points. Collect $5200 upon entry minus commissions and fees. Maximum risk is $600. Suggested risk is $400 plus trade costs and fees. Work to buy back at 25 points. IF realized it would be a gain of $2700 minus commissions and fees. Margin per 1 spread = $407.00
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Hans Schmit, Walsh Trading
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