As you know, at the end of last week, markets turned slightly into risk-off mode due to fresh attacks between Israel and Iran. We saw a sharp move to the upside in energy prices, while stocks faced some setbacks. I’m quite surprised that markets are doing relatively well at the start of a new week; some indexex even turned higher recently.

Also, there was only a minor rebound on the dollar index, which is typically seen as a safe haven during geopolitical tensions. So apparently, we could still see more weakness on the dollar—but of course, we cannot rule out a potential deeper if FED does not give any dovish hints. In my opinion, there won’t be any surprises regarding rate cuts, because job data is still fine, and inflation recently ticked higher from 2.3% to 2.4%.

At the same time we see pullback lower on bitcoin, and also some fresh highs on silver. 

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Grega

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