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Morning Commentary

March corn up ½ at $3.835

March beans up 5 ¼ at $9.2675

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $1.17 at $49.13

Good morning,

Corn prices have gained about +10 cents from the holiday lows. Bulls are hoping to hear some positive news out of Beijing this week as U.S. and Chinese leaders gather to discuss details of a trade compromise. We’ve heard tons of rumors and whisperers that the Chinese are interested in U.S. corn, ethanol, and DDGs but nothing officially has been delivered to the market. Hopefully we will learn more once U.S. officials wrap up their two-day meeting in Beijing. Also of increasing importance is South American weather. It’s still early, but pockets of dry conditions in Brazil and pockets of overly wet conditions in Argentina are creating some bullish headlines and a bit of uncertainty about total production. The USDA currently has their Brazilian production estimate forecast at 94.5 MMTs vs. 82.0 MMTs last year. Their Argentine production estimate is currently at 42.5 MMTs vs. just 32.0 MMTs last year. Technically, bulls are wanting to see the MAR19 corn contract close above $3.90. Keep in mind, the last time the MAR19 contract closed above $3.90 was all the way back in mid-October. It was on October 15th that the contract closed at $3.90^2. In fact, the last time we closed above $3.86 was back on October 17th.

Soybean bulls will be trying to build on last weeks +25 cent gains. Most all eyes will be on trade negotiations and headlines coming out of Beijing as U.S. and Chinese leaders gather the next couple of days to discuss details surrounding the current trade conflict.

Hearing about an under-the-radar move made by a Canadian-based food processor who recall everything made in the past three years at its plant in Colton, California. The recall is for 99 million pounds of food that might contain listeria. The plant supplied vegetables to at least 30 food companies. That’s a problem because that food goes downstream to other food, many of which get frozen and don’t expire for years. And according to the USDA and FDA, listeria can last forever. (Source: New Food Economy)

GM sales might be on a downturn in the U.S. with a 2.7% drop in the fourth quarter of 2018 and a drop of 1.6% across the whole year, but the company just took the title of top automaker in Mexico from Nissan. GM said the boost in production is to meet the strong demand for SUV and pickups. Over the last few years, GM has created or shifted production to Mexico, including the Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain SUVs and Chevrolet Silverado pickups. (Source: Detroit Free Press)

 

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