Morning Commentary

July corn up 8 at $4.38

July beans up 5 at $8.83

The DOW is up

USD is weaker

Crude oil up $.1.90 at $53.04

Good morning,

Corn  bulls are hoping to start a stampede! Technical guru’s are saying we need to take out the recent high in the JUL19 contract at $4.38 (and we did it this morning ) and the DEC19 high at $4.54 per bushel to trigger a “running of the bulls”. Ethanol demand on the week was stronger than most in the trade had been expecting. At the same time, U.S. ethanol stocks declined by -800,000 barrels and are now almost -2% below a year earlier. Today, the trade will be watching the weekly export numbers.

Soybean  bulls are trying to push the market beyond last weeks highs. The JUL19 contract is trying to climb above $8.94^4, while the NOV19 contract is trying to break above $9.21^2. Personally, I think we need to get back above $9.10 in the JUL19 contract and back above $9.30 in the NOV19 contract.

The size of the live pig herds in China dropped further in May this year while the herds of fertile sows also shrank. The number of live pigs was down more than 4% compared with April, marking a nearly 23% decline compared with May 2018, according to the latest data published by the Chinese ministry of agriculture and rural affairs. The number of fertile sows in May also fell over 4% month-on-month, nearly 24% lower than the equivalent month last year. Since the start of May this year, China has reported eight more outbreaks of ASF across five provinces in western China, taking the total number of outbreaks to 130 since August last year. (Source: AgriCensus) 

USDA officials adjusted the production forecast for hogs by increasing exports projections for 2019 by 220 million pounds. Removing the Mexican tariffs was mostly responsible for the higher export numbers, but it’s worth mentioning that the USDA trimmed a $1 from its 2019 average cash hog price outlook. With the Mexican tariffs gone for now, the 2020 pork export outlook was also raised by 270 million pounds to 6.945 billion pounds.


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