Morning Commentary

July corn up ½ at $3.295

July beans up 3 ¼ at $8.71

The DOW is up

USD is stronger

Crude oil up $1.64 at $39.05

Good morning,

Corn traders still see a market that’s trapped in a fairly narrow range. Many believe for the old-crop JUL20 contract to breakout above the $3.40 level we will need to see more serious weather concerns here in the U.S. or perhaps a healthy drop in acres by the USDA, i.e. something to put a dent in production. We will also need a more bullish demand story. Ethanol has rebound and supply is being pulled lower but we are still well below last year’s production levels and corn used for ethanol will more than likely need to be reduced again. Weekly export inspections were a disappointment.

Soybean producers are making some old-crop sales with the JUL20 contract +50 cents off the recent low set back on  April 24th. The cash basis bids are strong in many locations. The river bids have been good in many parts and recently the  rail bids have started pushing. The USDA is scheduled to release its June supply and demand report next Thursday. The fear is that U.S. production could work higher on increased acreage with probably not much change to demand. Bulls need the Chinese to keep buying, which has been the case as of late. The trend for July beans is positive. Stable action over 855.25 will fuel a drive to 895-900, perhaps 920. Closing under 846.25 undermines the outlook.

A federal appeals court ruling on dicamba herbicides issued Wednesday has thrown the agricultural industry into confusion. A panel of judges for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled that EPA’s approval of the use of XtendiMax, Engenia and FeXapan on an estimated 60 million acres of Xtend soybeans and cotton is vacated — or ended — effective immediately. DTN has an ongoing brief on what’s happening and how it will affect farmers, applicators and dicamba registrants in the weeks to come.

A Nebraska farmland realtor says opposing factors will be pushing and pulling land values in the coming months to decide what’s next for the land market. Before COVID-19, the market for good quality cropland was strong due to low interest rates, a compromise in trade negotiations and high demand, says Randy Dickhut, senior vice president of real estate operations for Farmers National Company. But after COVID-19 struck, a host of disruptions affected agriculture. Various factors that can impact land values are pulling in opposite directions. Positive influences include the continued low supply of good land for sale and historically low interest rates. Challenges that could put pressure on land values include the overriding potential for depressed farm incomes and the further decline of working capital for producers.(Successful Farming)


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