Morning Commentary

Sept corn down 3 at $4.2175

Aug beans up 4 ½ at $9.09

The DOW is up

USD is stronger

Crude oil up $1.58 at $60.05

Good morning,

This will be a quiet week and thinly traded market due to the holiday.

USDA came out and throws the corn market a curveball.  Corn was down limit (-25 cents) as they forecast 91.7 million planted acres, up +3% compared to last year.  Estimates are planted acres for Indiana up +150,000; North Dakota up +550,000 acres; Iowa up +400,000 acres; Kansas up +450,000 acres; Illinois and Michigan corn acres the same as last year!  Notice in corn that 16.7% of the 91.7 million acres were still intended to be planted during the survey period and were not done. That is 15.5 million acres.  The high of the market is likely in now until the combines roll.  Technically, the short term trend for December corn is bearish.  A close under 431.25 signals a drop to 405.5.  Stable action over 455 is needed to provide new upside targets.  The CFTC said the fund was long 148,000 corn as of June 25th.  Funds are estimated to have liquidated 60,000 corn since Wednesday.  They’re now thought to be long 88,000 lots. 

Soybean planted area for 2019 is estimated at 80.0 million acres, down 10 percent from last year. This represents the lowest soybean planted acreage in the United States since 2013. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down in all 29 estimating States. The short term trend for November beans is neutral-positive.  Stable action over 932.5 will provide fresh upside targets.  Closing under 903 signals a correction.  The CFTC said the fund was short 56,000 beans as of June 25th.  They’re now thought to be short 63,000 lots. 


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