Morning Commentary

Sept corn down 7 at $3.925

Nov beans down 10 ¼ at $8.5825

The DOW is down

USD is weaker

Crude oil down $.85 at $54.81

Good morning,

Corn  remains under pressure as tensions with China continue to escalate. In reality, most all commodities are under pressure on deepening trade fears. Bulls are trying to battle back on talk of increasing U.S. crop stress to the east. Bulls believe the USDA might slightly reduce their weekly crop-condition estimate. Last week the USDA raised U.S. corn crop conditions from 57% of the crop rated GD/EX to 58%. This week they might take that gain away and drop it back down a bit. Last year at this time the crop was rated 72% GD/EX.

Soybean traders continue to battle it out in regards to the “knowns vs. unknowns”. The trade clearly recognizes that the U.S. crop was planted extremely late.  The debate is how many acres were actually planted and how many were planted extremely late? And will there be a significant yield drag on the late-planted acres? The trade recognizes we are in a deep trade dispute with the Chinese. The question is will the fences be mended sooner rather than later or will the divide deepen?

Romania has seen a jump in reported swine fever cases among domestic pig herd with about 300 new outbreaks reported in July, up from about 80 reported cases in June and about 30 cases reported back in January. Bulgaria is also seeing an increase with a reported 18 cases in July. Bulgaria reported its sixth industrial hog farm has been affected with the rampant disease, causing another 8,253 pigs being culled. I’m told in Bulgaria has lost more than 20% of their pigs in the last few weeks. I should mention, Poland’s Pig Breeders and Producers Association warned that the virus poses a threat to the country’s entire pork industry, with even the largest facilities being at risk.  Slovakia reported its first cases of the disease last month. (Source: The Financial Times)  


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