Morning Commentary

Sept corn down 1 ¾ at $3.5775

Nov beans down 1 ½ at $8.785

The DOW is down

USD is stronger

Crude oil down $.50 at $73.65

Good morning,

In March, we felt the USDA under estimated total acres by 3 million. The report on Friday found back 2 million of it. Bean acres came in at 89.6 mil—almost exactly the estimates. Stocks came in at 1.221 also almost exactly on the estimates.   Pretty neutral report for the bean complex.  Corn stocks were slightly bigger than expected at 5.306 bil bu with acres also slightly above expectations at 89.1 mil.  I still feel we are feeding 150 to 200 mil bu more than the USDA is showing so will have to take old crop production up 2.0 bpa. This will flow right through the tables

and will not change ending stocks. Acres were about 600 thousand bigger than expected. Report was slightly bearish for corn.

What will heavy rainfall in Iowa do to corn and soybean crop conditions today?  Nothing because that calculation was mostly done before the Saturday evening rains. Last year on this week corn was nationally 68% good to excellent.  Soybeans were 64% good to excellent.  For comparison, on this week in 1993, Iowa corn ratings were 29% good to excellent.

We continue to hear of major damage in on farm bins.  Please go out and check bins today.  Carrying grain at this time of year is difficult.

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